Replication Lab · Study 1
Ruger, Kim, Martin & Quinn (2004): The Supreme Court Forecasting Project
Six case characteristics and a set of classification trees beat 83 legal experts at forecasting the 2002 Term. We rebuilt the method from the paper, checked it against the authors' own 2002 results, and ran it on every case the Court decided in OT2022–OT2025.
Verdict: partly reproduced, and no edge today.
Our rebuild of the method gets 65.2% of the 2002 Term's cases right, short of the paper's 75%.
Run on the 222 cases decided in OT2022–OT2025, it gets 65.8% right, while simply picking the petitioner every time gets 69.4%.
It never beats that baseline in any of the four terms.
Paper, OT2002
75%
51 of 68 cases (68% as first posted); legal experts 59.1%
Our rebuild, OT2002
65.2%
45 of 69 cases; petitioner always wins 71.0%
Applied to OT2022–OT2025
65.8%
146 of 222 cases; petitioner always wins 69.4%
OT2025 alone
62.5%
35 of 56 cases; petitioner always wins 66.1%
The study
Question. Can a simple statistical model, which knows nothing about the law or facts of a case, forecast the Court's decisions as well as legal experts can?
Design. A prospective contest. For every case argued in the 2002 Term, the authors posted the model's forecast before oral argument, and 83 legal experts (71 academics and 12 appellate lawyers, including 38 former Supreme Court clerks) each forecast one to three cases in their field without seeing the model or each other. Both forecast the outcome (affirm or reverse) and every Justice's vote.
Data
- Training data: the 628 cases the second Rehnquist Court decided before the 2002 Term. The same nine Justices had sat together since OT1994, so every Justice had eight terms of votes.
- Six variables per case: circuit of origin (state courts and three-judge district courts count as the circuit they sit in), issue area, type of petitioner, type of respondent, the ideological direction of the lower-court ruling, and whether the petitioner argued that a law or practice is unconstitutional.
- Variables came from the Supreme Court Database for training; for the 2002 cases the authors coded them from the parties' briefs before argument.
- Test data: 68 of the 76 cases argued in OT2002. Dismissed cases, evenly divided decisions and three cases that could not be scored as affirm or reverse were left out.
Method
- Classification trees, one question at a time: each tree splits cases on the six variables until it reaches a group that mostly went one way.
- Two trees run first and ask whether the Court will rule unanimously liberal or unanimously conservative. If exactly one says yes, that is the forecast.
- Otherwise nine trees forecast each Justice's vote, in a fixed order (Scalia, Thomas, Rehnquist, Stevens, O'Connor, Ginsburg, Breyer, Souter, Kennedy). A later Justice's tree may use the votes predicted for the Justices before them. The majority of the nine votes is the forecast.
- The authors chose this design from 24 candidates by fitting each on part of the training data and scoring it on the rest, then refit the winner on all 628 cases.
What they found
| Model | Notes | |
|---|---|---|
| Case outcomes | 75% (51 of 68) | 68% as first posted. At the end of the Term the authors found a software error that had fed some cases into the trees with wrong inputs (a Ninth Circuit case entered as Fifth Circuit, for example); 75% is the corrected model. The experts got 59.1%, and their per-case consensus 65.6%. |
| Justices' votes | 66.7% | The experts did slightly better on votes: 67.9%. They did best with the Justices at the ends of the spectrum; the model did better with O'Connor and Kennedy in the middle. |
| By issue | Economic activity 87.5%; judicial power 50% | The experts got 51.3% of economic activity cases and 73.7% of judicial power cases. |
The takeaway. Knowing a case's broad shape (where it came from, who is suing whom, which way the lower court leaned) predicted this stable Court's decisions better than case-specific expertise did.
- Theodore W. Ruger, Pauline T. Kim, Andrew D. Martin & Kevin M. Quinn, The Supreme Court Forecasting Project: Legal and Political Science Approaches to Predicting Supreme Court Decisionmaking, 104 Columbia Law Review 1150 (2004). Find it →
- Andrew D. Martin, Kevin M. Quinn, Theodore W. Ruger & Pauline T. Kim, Competing Approaches to Predicting Supreme Court Decision Making, 2 Perspectives on Politics 761 (2004). DOI →
How we rebuilt it
Same variables, same tree design, same model search and the same test-set rules. Where we had to depart from the paper, the table says so.
| Paper | Our rebuild | |
|---|---|---|
| Training data | 628 cases of the 1994–2001 Court (same nine Justices) | 630 cases from the Supreme Court Database (SCDB 2025 Release 01), same Court and terms |
| Six variables | From the database for training; coded by the authors from the merits briefs for 2002 | From the database for every SCDB term. For OT2025, which the database doesn’t cover yet, coded by a language model (Claude) from each opinion’s syllabus, which describes the case and the ruling below; it was told not to use the Court’s holding |
| Circuit of origin | State courts and three-judge district courts mapped to their circuit | The same, using the database’s state codes |
| Petitioner and respondent types | The database’s 300+ party codes, collapsed by the authors into broader groups | Collapsed into the 10 groups the paper’s trees use; each database code labeled by a language model from example case names, because the database’s codebook site blocks automated access |
| Unconstitutional-law claim | Whether the petitioner argued a law or practice is unconstitutional | The database’s law-type field (constitution or amendment) |
| Model search | 24 designs, chosen on held-out training cases | 24 designs (unanimity stage on or off × linked votes on or off × six tree sizes), chosen on the later third of the training terms |
| Order of Justices | Fixed: Scalia, Thomas, Rehnquist, Stevens, O’Connor, Ginsburg, Breyer, Souter, Kennedy | The paper’s order for 2002. For later Courts the paper gives no rule, so we go from the ideological extremes inward (median Justice last), by the prior term’s Martin–Quinn scores |
| Test cases | 68 OT2002 cases; dismissals, evenly divided Courts and 3 unclassifiable cases removed | 69 OT2002 cases after the same removals; we could not tell which further case the paper left out |
| Timing | Forecasts posted before oral argument | Retrospective. The six inputs are facts known before argument, but our coding was done after the decisions |
Check: does the rebuild reproduce 2002?
Trained on the 630 cases the 1994–2001 Court decided and tested on OT2002, as in the paper. The model search chose: unanimity stage on, linked votes off, at least 25 cases per leaf.
| Cases right | Votes right | |
|---|---|---|
| Paper (corrected) | 75.0% 51/68 | 66.7% |
| Paper (as posted during the Term) | 68% | — |
| Legal experts | 59.1% | 67.9% |
| Our rebuild | 65.2% 45/69 | 61.8% 382/618 |
| Petitioner always wins | 71.0% | 65.0% |
Our rebuild falls about 10 points short of the paper. The likeliest reasons: the authors coded the 2002 cases from the briefs themselves and grouped the parties their own way, and small coding differences move a tree's branches. With so few test cases the gap may also be partly chance: the paper's 75% sits inside our 95% interval of 53.6%–76.8%. The paper's own 68% → 75% swing from fixing a software bug shows how sensitive the result is to inputs.
All 69 OT2002 cases
| Case and the model's six inputs | Model | Decision | Right? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Syngenta Crop Protection, Inc., Robert Babb, Edee Templet, and Kenneth A. Devun v. Hurley Henson 11th Cir. · Judicial Power · business or employer v. other party · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 5-4 Justice trees |
Respondent 0-9 | ✗ |
| Yellow Transportation, Inc. v. Michigan, et al. 6th Cir. · Economic Activity · business or employer v. state or local government · lower court liberal |
Respondent 4-5 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✗ |
| Rex R. Sprietsma, Administrator of the Estate of Jeanne Sprietsma, Deceased v. Mercury Marine, a Division of Brunswick Corporation 7th Cir. · Federalism · other party v. business or employer · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 7-2 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| United States, et al. v. Thomas Lamar Bean 5th Cir. · Judicial Power · United States v. criminal defendant or prisoner · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 9-0 unanimity tree |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Karen Howsam, Etc. v. Dean Witter Reynolds, Inc. 10th Cir. · Economic Activity · business or employer v. business or employer · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 8-0 Justice trees |
Respondent 0-8 | ✗ |
| David Allen Sattazahn v. Pennsylvania 3rd Cir. · Criminal Procedure · criminal defendant or prisoner v. state or local government · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 5-4 Justice trees |
Respondent 4-5 | ✗ |
| Pierce County, Washington v. Ignacio Guillen, Legal Guardian of Jennifer Guillen and Alma Guillen, Minors, et al. 9th Cir. · Economic Activity · state or local government v. other party · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 8-1 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Jo Anne B. Barnhart, Commissioner of Social Security v. Peabody Coal Company et al. 6th Cir. · Civil Rights · government official or agency v. business or employer · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 8-1 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ |
| Eric Eldred, et al. v. John D. Ashcroft, Attorney General D.C. Cir. · Economic Activity · business or employer v. government official or agency · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Respondent 2-7 | ✗ |
| United States v. Francisco Jimenez Recio and Adrian Lopez-Meza 9th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · United States v. criminal defendant or prisoner · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 8-1 | ✓ |
| David Meyer, Individually and in His Capacity As President and Designated Officer/Broker of Triad, Inc., Etc. v. Emma Mary Ellen Holley, et Vir, et al. 9th Cir. · Civil Rights · business or employer v. other party · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Federal Communications Commission v. Nextwave Personal Communications Inc. et al. D.C. Cir. · Economic Activity · government official or agency v. business or employer · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 7-2 Justice trees |
Respondent 1-8 | ✗ |
| Thomas Joe Miller-El v. Janie Cockrell, Director, Texas Department of Criminal Justice, Institutional Division 5th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · criminal defendant or prisoner v. state or local government · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 5-4 Justice trees |
Petitioner 8-1 | ✓ |
| Washington State Department of Social and Health Services, et al. v. Guardianship Estate of Danny Keffeler et al. 9th Cir. · Civil Rights · state or local government v. other party · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 8-1 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Scheidler v. National Organization for Women, Inc. 7th Cir. · Privacy · other party v. other party · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 8-1 Justice trees |
Petitioner 8-1 | ✓ |
| Victor Moseley and Cathy Moseley, Dba Victor's Little Secret v. V Secret Catalogue, Inc., et al. 6th Cir. · Economic Activity · business or employer v. business or employer · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| The Boeing Company and Consolidated Subsidiaries v. United States 9th Cir. · Federal Taxation · business or employer v. United States · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 8-1 Justice trees |
Respondent 2-7 | ✗ |
| United States v. White Mountain Apache Tribe Fed. Cir. · Civil Rights · United States v. Indian or tribe · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Respondent 4-5 | ✗ |
| United States v. Navajo Nation Fed. Cir. · Civil Rights · United States v. Indian or tribe · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ |
| Erick Cornell Clay v. United States 7th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · criminal defendant or prisoner v. United States · lower court conservative |
Respondent 4-5 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✗ |
| Connecticut Department of Public Safety, et al. v. John Doe, Individually and on Behalf of All Others Similarly Situated 2nd Cir. · Criminal Procedure · state or local government v. criminal defendant or prisoner · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 5-4 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Gary Albert Ewing v. California 9th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · criminal defendant or prisoner v. state or local government · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Respondent 4-5 | ✗ |
| Bill Lockyer, Attorney General of California v. Leandro Andrade 9th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · state or local government v. criminal defendant or prisoner · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 8-1 Justice trees |
Petitioner 5-4 | ✓ |
| Delbert W. Smith and Bruce M. Botelho v. John Doe I et al. 9th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · state or local government v. criminal defendant or prisoner · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 8-1 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ |
| Cook County, Illinois v. United States ex rel. Janet Chandler 7th Cir. · Economic Activity · state or local government v. business or employer · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 5-4 Justice trees |
Respondent 0-9 | ✗ |
| Norfolk & Western Railway Company v. Freeman Ayers et al. 4th Cir. · Economic Activity · business or employer v. injured person or consumer · lower court liberal |
Respondent 4-5 Justice trees |
Respondent 4-5 | ✓ |
| City of Cuyahoga Falls, Ohio, et al. v. Buckeye Community Hope Foundation et al. 6th Cir. · Civil Rights · state or local government v. other party · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 5-4 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Jeanne Woodford, Warden v. Robert Frederick Garceau 9th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · state or local government v. criminal defendant or prisoner · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 8-1 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ |
| Allen D. Brown and Greg Hayes v. Legal Foundation of Washington et al. 9th Cir. · Due Process · other party v. other party · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Respondent 4-5 | ✗ |
| Beatrice Branch, et al. v. John Robert Smith et al. other court · Civil Rights · other party v. other party · lower court unclear |
Respondent 4-5 Justice trees |
Respondent 2-7 | ✓ |
| A. Elliott Archer, et Ux. v. Arlene L. Warner 4th Cir. · Economic Activity · business or employer v. other party · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 5-4 Justice trees |
Petitioner 7-2 | ✓ |
| Kentucky Association of Health Plans, Inc., et al. v. Janie A. Miller, Commissioner, Kentucky Department of Insurance 6th Cir. · Federalism · business or employer v. government official or agency · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 5-4 Justice trees |
Respondent 0-9 | ✗ |
| Virginia v. Barry Elton Black, Richard J. Elliott, and Jonathan O'mara 4th Cir. · First Amendment · state or local government v. other party · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 5-4 Justice trees |
Petitioner 7-2 | ✓ |
| Pacificare Health Systems, Inc., et al. v. Jeffrey Book et al. 11th Cir. · Economic Activity · other party v. other party · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 7-1 Justice trees |
Petitioner 8-0 | ✓ |
| State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Company v. Inez Preece Campbell and Matthew C. Barneck, Special Administrator and Personal Representative of the Estate of Curtis B. Campbell 10th Cir. · Economic Activity · business or employer v. other party · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 5-4 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ |
| Clackamas Gastroenterology Associates, P. C. v. Deborah Wells 9th Cir. · Civil Rights · other party v. other party · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 7-2 | ✓ |
| Susan Jinks v. Richland County, South Carolina 4th Cir. · Judicial Power · other party v. state or local government · lower court conservative |
Respondent 4-5 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✗ |
| Dole Food Company, et al. v. Gerardo Dennis Patrickson et al. 9th Cir. · Judicial Power · business or employer v. injured person or consumer · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Respondent 0-9 | ✗ |
| Franchise Tax Board of California v. Gilbert P. Hyatt, et al. 9th Cir. · Interstate Relations · state or local government v. business or employer · lower court unclear · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 7-2 Justice trees |
Respondent 0-9 | ✗ |
| Joseph Massaro v. United States 2nd Cir. · Criminal Procedure · criminal defendant or prisoner v. United States · lower court conservative |
Respondent 4-5 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✗ |
| Charles Demore, District Director, San Francisco District of Immigration and Naturalization Service, et al. v. Hyung Joon Kim 9th Cir. · Civil Rights · government official or agency v. other party · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 5-4 | ✓ |
| Joseph C. Roell, Petra Garibay, and James Reagan v. Jon Michael Withrow 5th Cir. · Judicial Power · criminal defendant or prisoner v. government official or agency · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 7-2 Justice trees |
Petitioner 5-4 | ✓ |
| Illinois ex rel. Lisa Madigan, Attorney General of Illinois v. Telemarketing Associates, Inc., et al. 7th Cir. · First Amendment · government official or agency v. other party · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 5-4 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Janette Price, Warden v. Duyonn Andre Vincent 6th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · state or local government v. criminal defendant or prisoner · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 5-4 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America v. Peter E. Walsh, Acting Commissioner, Maine Department of Human Services, et al. 1st Cir. · Economic Activity · business or employer v. state or local government · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 5-4 Justice trees |
Respondent 3-6 | ✗ |
| Phillip T. Breuer v. Jim's Concrete of Brevard, Inc. 11th Cir. · Judicial Power · injured person or consumer v. business or employer · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 9-0 unanimity tree |
Respondent 0-9 | ✗ |
| Inyo County, California, et al. v. Paiute-Shoshone Indians of the Bishop Community of the Bishop Colony et al. 9th Cir. · Civil Rights · state or local government v. Indian or tribe · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 8-1 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Nevada Department of Human Resources, et al. v. William Hibbs et al. 9th Cir. · Federalism · state or local government v. employee or union · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 8-1 Justice trees |
Respondent 3-6 | ✗ |
| Ben Chavez v. Oliverio Martinez 9th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · employee or union v. criminal defendant or prisoner · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ |
| The Black & Decker Disability Plan v. Kenneth L. Nord 9th Cir. · Economic Activity · business or employer v. injured person or consumer · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Beneficial National Bank, et al. v. Marie Anderson et al. 11th Cir. · Judicial Power · business or employer v. business or employer · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 7-2 | ✓ |
| Dastar Corporation v. Twentieth Century Fox Film Corporation et al. 9th Cir. · Economic Activity · business or employer v. business or employer · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 8-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 8-0 | ✓ |
| Entergy Louisiana, Inc. v. Louisiana Public Service Commission et al. 5th Cir. · Federalism · business or employer v. state or local government · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 5-4 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Hillside Dairy Inc., A&a Dairy, L&S Dairy, and Milky Way Farms v. William J. Lyons, JR., Secretary, California Department of Food and Agriculture, et al. 9th Cir. · Economic Activity · business or employer v. state or local government · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 8-1 | ✓ |
| Khanh Phuong Nguyen v. United States et al. 9th Cir. · Judicial Power · other party v. United States · lower court conservative |
Respondent 4-5 Justice trees |
Petitioner 5-4 | ✗ |
| Desert Palace, Inc., Dba Caesars Palace Hotel & Casino v. Catharina F. Costa 9th Cir. · Civil Rights · business or employer v. other party · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Respondent 0-9 | ✗ |
| Michael Fitzgerald, Treasurer of Iowa v. Racing Association of Central Iowa et al. 8th Cir. · Economic Activity · government official or agency v. business or employer · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 8-1 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Virginia v. Kevin Lamont Hicks 4th Cir. · First Amendment · state or local government v. criminal defendant or prisoner · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 5-4 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| William Overton, Director, Michigan Department of Corrections, et al. v. Michelle Bazzetta et al. 6th Cir. · First Amendment · state or local government v. criminal defendant or prisoner · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 5-4 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Federal Election Commission v. Christine Beaumont et al. 4th Cir. · First Amendment · government official or agency v. other party · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 7-2 Justice trees |
Petitioner 7-2 | ✓ |
| Charles Thomas Sell v. United States 8th Cir. · Due Process · criminal defendant or prisoner v. United States · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Respondent 4-5 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✗ |
| United States, et al. v. American Library Association, Inc., et al. other court · First Amendment · United States v. business or employer · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 5-4 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ |
| Jennifer Gratz and Patrick Hamacher v. Lee Bollinger et al. other court · Civil Rights · other party v. state or local government · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ |
| Barbara Grutter v. Lee Bollinger et al. 6th Cir. · Civil Rights · other party v. state or local government · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 5-4 Justice trees |
Respondent 4-5 | ✗ |
| American Insurance Association, et al. v. John Garamendi, Insurance Commissioner, State of California 9th Cir. · Federalism · business or employer v. government official or agency · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 5-4 | ✓ |
| Georgia v. John Ashcroft, Attorney General, et al. other court · Civil Rights · state or local government v. government official or agency · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 5-4 Justice trees |
Petitioner 5-4 | ✓ |
| Kevin Wiggins v. Sewall Smith, Warden, et al. 4th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · criminal defendant or prisoner v. state or local government · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 5-4 Justice trees |
Petitioner 7-2 | ✓ |
| John Geddes Lawrence and Tyron Garner v. Texas 5th Cir. · Privacy · other party v. state or local government · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 5-4 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ |
| Marion Reynolds Stogner v. California 9th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · criminal defendant or prisoner v. state or local government · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 5-4 | ✓ |
Applied to OT2022–OT2025
Each term was forecast the paper's way: the trees were trained only on earlier terms of the Court then sitting, the model search was rerun, and the term itself was never seen. "Petitioner always wins" is scored on the same cases.
| Term | Trained on (cases) | Cases right | Petitioner always wins | Points | Votes right | Every vote for petitioner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OT2022 | OT2020–OT2021 (previous Court; no tree for Jackson) (111) | 54.5% 30/55 | 63.6% | −9.1 | 60.8% | 63.0% |
| OT2023 | OT2022 (current Court) (55) | 72.7% 40/55 | 72.7% | +0.0 | 68.6% | 66.9% |
| OT2024 | OT2022–OT2023 (current Court) (110) | 73.2% 41/56 | 75.0% | −1.8 | 66.5% | 67.1% |
| OT2025 | OT2022–OT2024 (current Court) (166) | 62.5% 35/56 | 66.1% | −3.6 | 64.1% | 56.3% |
| All four | 65.8% 146/222 | 69.4% | −3.6 | 65.1% | 63.3% |
“Points” is the model's accuracy minus the baseline's. Over all four terms the model picked the petitioner in 198 of 222 cases. 95% interval for the pooled accuracy: 59.5%–72.1%.
With more training data
The current Court has decided few cases, so we also trained on every term since OT2020 (the current 6–3 Court, before and after Justice Jackson replaced Justice Breyer). This goes beyond the paper's rule. It did worse.
| Term | Trained on (cases) | Cases right | Petitioner always wins | Points | Votes right | Every vote for petitioner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OT2022 | OT2020–OT2021 (111) | 54.5% 30/55 | 63.6% | −9.1 | 60.8% | 63.0% |
| OT2023 | OT2020–OT2022 (166) | 70.9% 39/55 | 72.7% | −1.8 | 66.3% | 66.9% |
| OT2024 | OT2020–OT2023 (221) | 64.3% 36/56 | 75.0% | −10.7 | 69.7% | 67.1% |
| OT2025 | OT2020–OT2024 (277) | 55.4% 31/56 | 66.1% | −10.7 | 65.5% | 56.3% |
| All four | 61.3% 136/222 | 69.4% | −8.1 | 65.7% | 63.3% |
Case by case
Each case shows the six inputs the model saw, its pick and predicted vote, and the actual decision. For OT2025 the last column shows the forecast we published before the decision, where we made one. On the 31 cases both made a call on, the trees got 22 right and our forecasts 21; the petitioner won 23.
OT2025 · 35 of 56 right (62.5%) · picked the petitioner in 54 of 56 · trained on OT2022–OT2024 (current Court)
Design chosen: unanimity stage on, linked votes off, at least 15 training cases per leaf. Chosen by fitting on OT2022–OT2023 and scoring on OT2024. Hamm v. Smith is left out: the Court dismissed it without deciding, so there is no winner to score.
| Case and the model's six inputs | Model | Decision | Right? | Our forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump D.C. Cir. · Miscellaneous · business or employer v. government official or agency · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 7-2 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ | Petitioner ✓ |
| Galette v. New Jersey Transit Corp. 3rd Cir. · Economic Activity · injured person or consumer v. state or local government · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 8-1 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ | — |
| Urias-Orellana v. Bondi 1st Cir. · Civil Rights · other party v. government official or agency · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Respondent 0-9 | ✗ | — |
| Cox Communications, Inc. v. Sony Music Entertainment 4th Cir. · Economic Activity · business or employer v. business or employer · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ | Petitioner ✓ |
| Chiles v. Salazar 10th Cir. · Civil Rights · other party v. government official or agency · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 8-1 | ✓ | Petitioner ✓ |
| Chevron USA Inc. v. Plaquemines Parish 5th Cir. · Judicial Power · business or employer v. state or local government · lower court liberal |
Respondent 4-4 Justice trees |
Petitioner 8-0 | ✗ | Respondent ✗ |
| Enbridge Energy, LP v. Nessel 6th Cir. · Judicial Power · business or employer v. state or local government · lower court unclear |
Petitioner 5-4 Justice trees |
Respondent 0-9 | ✗ | Respondent ✓ |
| First Choice Women's Resource Centers, Inc. v. Davenport 3rd Cir. · Judicial Power · other party v. government official or agency · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ | Petitioner ✓ |
| Louisiana v. Callais 5th Cir. · Civil Rights · state or local government v. other party · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 8-1 Justice trees |
Respondent 3-6 | ✗ | Respondent ✓ |
| Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II, LLC 7th Cir. · Unions · injured person or consumer v. business or employer · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 unanimity tree |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ | Petitioner ✓ |
| Havana Docks Corp. v. Royal Caribbean Cruises, Ltd. 11th Cir. · Economic Activity · business or employer v. business or employer · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 unanimity tree |
Petitioner 8-1 | ✓ | Respondent ✗ |
| Flowers Foods, Inc. v. Brock 10th Cir. · Unions · business or employer v. employee or union · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Respondent 0-9 | ✗ | Petitioner ✗ |
| FCC v. AT&T 5th Cir. · Economic Activity · government official or agency v. business or employer · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 unanimity tree |
Petitioner 8-1 | ✓ | Respondent ✗ |
| Hikma Pharmaceuticals USA Inc. v. Amarin Pharma, Inc. Fed. Cir. · Economic Activity · business or employer v. business or employer · lower court unclear |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ | — |
| Sripetch v. SEC 9th Cir. · Economic Activity · criminal defendant or prisoner v. government official or agency · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 5-4 Justice trees |
Respondent 0-9 | ✗ | — |
| FS Credit Opportunities Corp. v. Saba Capital Master Fund, Ltd. 2nd Cir. · Economic Activity · business or employer v. business or employer · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ | — |
| Keathley v. Buddy Ayers Construction, Inc. 5th Cir. · Economic Activity · injured person or consumer v. business or employer · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 unanimity tree |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ | Petitioner ✓ |
| Hunter v. United States 5th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · criminal defendant or prisoner v. United States · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 7-2 Justice trees |
Petitioner 8-1 | ✓ | Petitioner ✓ |
| T. M. v. University of Md. Medical System Corporation 4th Cir. · Judicial Power · injured person or consumer v. business or employer · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 9-0 unanimity tree |
Respondent 4-5 | ✗ | Petitioner ✗ |
| United States v. Hemani 5th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · United States v. criminal defendant or prisoner · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 5-4 Justice trees |
Respondent 0-9 | ✗ | Petitioner ✗ |
| Blanche v. Lau 2nd Cir. · Civil Rights · government official or agency v. other party · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 5-4 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ | Petitioner ✓ |
| Cisco Systems, Inc. v. Doe 9th Cir. · Judicial Power · business or employer v. injured person or consumer · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-1 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-1 | ✓ | Petitioner ✓ |
| Exxon Mobil Corp. v. Corporación Cimex, S. A. (Cuba) D.C. Cir. · Judicial Power · business or employer v. other party · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 7-2 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ | Petitioner ✓ |
| Landor v. Louisiana Dept of Corrections and Public Safety 5th Cir. · First Amendment · criminal defendant or prisoner v. state or local government · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 7-2 Justice trees |
Respondent 3-6 | ✗ | Petitioner ✗ |
| Pung v. Isabella County 6th Cir. · Due Process · injured person or consumer v. state or local government · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Respondent 0-9 | ✗ | Petitioner ✗ |
| Monsanto v. Durnell 8th Cir. · Federalism · business or employer v. injured person or consumer · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 7-2 | ✓ | Respondent ✗ |
| Mullin v. Doe 2nd Cir. · Civil Rights · government official or agency v. other party · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 5-4 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ | Petitioner ✓ |
| Mullin v. Al Otro Lado 9th Cir. · Civil Rights · government official or agency v. other party · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 5-4 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ | Petitioner ✓ |
| Wolford v. Lopez 9th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · injured person or consumer v. government official or agency · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ | Petitioner ✓ |
| Chatrie v. United States 4th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · criminal defendant or prisoner v. United States · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 7-2 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ | Petitioner ✓ |
| Trump v. Slaughter D.C. Cir. · Miscellaneous · government official or agency v. government official or agency · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 8-1 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ | Petitioner ✓ |
| Watson v. Republican National Committee 5th Cir. · Civil Rights · government official or agency v. politician or candidate · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 5-4 Justice trees |
Petitioner 5-4 | ✓ | Respondent ✗ |
| West Virginia v. B. P. J. 4th Cir. · Civil Rights · state or local government v. other party · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ | Petitioner ✓ |
| National Republican Senatorial Committee v. Federal Election Comm'n 6th Cir. · First Amendment · politician or candidate v. government official or agency · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ | Petitioner ✓ |
| Trump v. Barbara 1st Cir. · Civil Rights · government official or agency v. injured person or consumer · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 8-1 Justice trees |
Respondent 3-6 | ✗ | Respondent ✓ |
| West Virginia v. B. P. J. 4th Cir. · Civil Rights · state or local government v. other party · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ | Petitioner ✓ |
| M & K Employee Solutions, Inc. v. Trustees of IAM Nat. Pension D.C. Cir. · Economic Activity · business or employer v. other party · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 7-2 Justice trees |
Respondent 0-9 | ✗ | — |
| Rico v. United States 9th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · criminal defendant or prisoner v. United States · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 8-1 | ✓ | — |
| Postal Service v. Konan 5th Cir. · Economic Activity · government official or agency v. injured person or consumer · lower court liberal |
Respondent 4-5 Justice trees |
Petitioner 5-4 | ✗ | — |
| Berk v. Choy 3rd Cir. · Judicial Power · injured person or consumer v. business or employer · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 unanimity tree |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ | — |
| Ellingburg v. United States 8th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · criminal defendant or prisoner v. United States · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 7-2 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ | — |
| Bowe v. United States 11th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · criminal defendant or prisoner v. United States · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 7-2 Justice trees |
Petitioner 5-4 | ✓ | — |
| Fernandez v. United States 2nd Cir. · Criminal Procedure · criminal defendant or prisoner v. United States · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Respondent 1-8 | ✗ | — |
| Villarreal v. Texas 5th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · criminal defendant or prisoner v. state or local government · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 8-1 Justice trees |
Respondent 0-9 | ✗ | — |
| Bost v. Illinois Bd. of Elections 7th Cir. · Judicial Power · politician or candidate v. government official or agency · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 7-2 | ✓ | — |
| Barrett v. United States 2nd Cir. · Criminal Procedure · criminal defendant or prisoner v. United States · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 7-2 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ | — |
| Case v. Montana 9th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · criminal defendant or prisoner v. state or local government · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 8-1 Justice trees |
Respondent 0-9 | ✗ | — |
| Hain Celestial Group, Inc. v. Palmquist 5th Cir. · Judicial Power · business or employer v. injured person or consumer · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 5-4 Justice trees |
Respondent 0-9 | ✗ | — |
| Pitchford v. Cain 5th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · criminal defendant or prisoner v. government official or agency · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 8-1 Justice trees |
Petitioner 5-4 | ✓ | — |
| Geo Group, Inc. v. Menocal 10th Cir. · Judicial Power · business or employer v. criminal defendant or prisoner · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Respondent 0-9 | ✗ | — |
| Coney Island Auto Parts Unlimited, Inc. v. Burton 6th Cir. · Judicial Power · business or employer v. government official or agency · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 7-2 Justice trees |
Respondent 0-9 | ✗ | — |
| Rutherford v. United States 3rd Cir. · Criminal Procedure · criminal defendant or prisoner v. United States · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Respondent 3-6 | ✗ | — |
| Hencely v. Fluor Corp. 4th Cir. · Federalism · injured person or consumer v. business or employer · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 unanimity tree |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ | — |
| Olivier v. City of Brandon 5th Cir. · Civil Rights · other party v. state or local government · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 7-2 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ | — |
| Abouammo v. United States 9th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · criminal defendant or prisoner v. United States · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 7-2 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ | — |
| Jules v. Andre Balazs Properties 2nd Cir. · Judicial Power · employee or union v. business or employer · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 unanimity tree |
Respondent 0-9 | ✗ | — |
OT2024 · 41 of 56 right (73.2%) · picked the petitioner in 55 of 56 · trained on OT2022–OT2023 (current Court)
Design chosen: unanimity stage on, linked votes on, at least 25 training cases per leaf. Chosen by fitting on OT2022 and scoring on OT2023.
| Case and the model's six inputs | Model | Decision | Right? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bouarfa v. Mayorkas 11th Cir. · Judicial Power · other party v. government official or agency · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Respondent 0-9 | ✗ |
| Medical Marijuana, Inc. v. Horn 2nd Cir. · Economic Activity · business or employer v. other party · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Respondent 4-5 | ✗ |
| FDA v. Wages and White Lion Investments, LLC 5th Cir. · Economic Activity · government official or agency v. business or employer · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Williams v. Reed 11th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · other party v. state or local government · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 5-4 | ✓ |
| Bondi v. Vanderstok 5th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · government official or agency v. business or employer · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 7-2 | ✓ |
| Lackey v. Stinnie 4th Cir. · Attorneys · state or local government v. business or employer · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 7-2 | ✓ |
| Glossip v. Oklahoma 10th Cir. · Due Process · criminal defendant or prisoner v. state or local government · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 8-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-2 | ✓ |
| City and County of San Francisco v. Environmental Protection Agency 9th Cir. · Economic Activity · state or local government v. government official or agency · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 5-4 | ✓ |
| Bufkin v. Collins Fed. Cir. · Judicial Power · other party v. government official or agency · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Respondent 2-7 | ✗ |
| Wisconsin Bell v. U.S., ex rel. Todd Heath 7th Cir. · Economic Activity · business or employer v. United States · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Respondent 0-9 | ✗ |
| Advocate Christ Medical Center v. Kennedy D.C. Cir. · Economic Activity · other party v. government official or agency · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Respondent 2-7 | ✗ |
| E.M.D. Sales v. Carrera 4th Cir. · Unions · other party v. injured person or consumer · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Velazquez v. Bondi 10th Cir. · Civil Rights · other party v. government official or agency · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 5-4 | ✓ |
| Delligatti v. United States 2nd Cir. · Criminal Procedure · criminal defendant or prisoner v. United States · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Respondent 2-7 | ✗ |
| United States v. Miller 10th Cir. · Economic Activity · United States v. other party · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 8-1 | ✓ |
| Republic of Hungary v. Simon D.C. Cir. · Economic Activity · other party v. other party · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| United States v. Skrmetti 6th Cir. · Civil Rights · United States v. state or local government · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Respondent 3-6 | ✗ |
| Kousisis v. United States 3rd Cir. · Criminal Procedure · business or employer v. United States · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Respondent 0-9 | ✗ |
| Feliciano v. Department of Transportation Fed. Cir. · Economic Activity · injured person or consumer v. government official or agency · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 5-4 | ✓ |
| Seven County Infastructure Coalition v. Eagle County, Colorado D.C. Cir. · Economic Activity · state or local government v. state or local government · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 5-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 8-0 | ✓ |
| Dewberry Group v. Dewberry Engineers 4th Cir. · Economic Activity · business or employer v. business or employer · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Hewitt v. United States 5th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · criminal defendant or prisoner v. United States · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 5-4 | ✓ |
| Stanley v. City of Sanford, Florida 11th Cir. · Civil Rights · other party v. state or local government · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Respondent 2-7 | ✗ |
| Thompson v. United States 7th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · criminal defendant or prisoner v. United States · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Waetzig v. Halliburton Energy Services 10th Cir. · Judicial Power · injured person or consumer v. business or employer · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Free Speech Coalition v. Paxton 5th Cir. · First Amendment · other party v. state or local government · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Respondent 3-6 | ✗ |
| Food and Drug Administration v. R.J. Reynolds Vapor Co. 5th Cir. · Judicial Power · government official or agency v. business or employer · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Respondent 2-7 | ✗ |
| Mclaughlin Chiropractic Associates v. Mckesson Corporation 9th Cir. · Judicial Power · business or employer v. other party · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ |
| Barnes v. Felix 5th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · other party v. government official or agency · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Cunningham v. Cornell University 2nd Cir. · Economic Activity · injured person or consumer v. business or employer · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Gutierrez v. Saenz 5th Cir. · Due Process · criminal defendant or prisoner v. state or local government · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ |
| Esteras v. United States 6th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · other party v. United States · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 7-2 | ✓ |
| Perttu v. Richards 6th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · employee or union v. criminal defendant or prisoner · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Respondent 4-5 | ✗ |
| Ames v. Ohio Department of Youth Services 6th Cir. · Civil Rights · injured person or consumer v. state or local government · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Cc/Devas (Mauritius) Limited v. Antrix Corp. LTD. 9th Cir. · Judicial Power · business or employer v. business or employer · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Blom Bank Sal v. Honickman 2nd Cir. · Judicial Power · business or employer v. other party · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Smith & Wesson Brands v. Estados Unidos Mexicanos 1st Cir. · Economic Activity · business or employer v. other party · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Nuclear Regulatory Commission v. Texas 5th Cir. · Judicial Power · government official or agency v. state or local government · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ |
| Oklahoma v. Environmental Protection Agency 10th Cir. · Judicial Power · state or local government v. government official or agency · lower court liberal |
Respondent 4-4 Justice trees |
Petitioner 8-0 | ✗ |
| Environmental Protection Agency v. Calumet Shreveport Refining, LLC 5th Cir. · Judicial Power · government official or agency v. business or employer · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 7-2 | ✓ |
| Riley v. Bondi 4th Cir. · Civil Rights · other party v. government official or agency · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 5-4 | ✓ |
| Federal Communications Commission v. Consumers' Research 5th Cir. · Economic Activity · government official or agency v. other party · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ |
| Royal Canin U.S.A., Inc. v. Wullschleger 8th Cir. · Economic Activity · business or employer v. other party · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Respondent 0-9 | ✗ |
| Catholic Charities Bureau v. Wisconsin Labor & Industry Review Commission 7th Cir. · First Amendment · other party v. state or local government · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Rivers v. Guerrero 5th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · criminal defendant or prisoner v. state or local government · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Respondent 0-9 | ✗ |
| Fuld v. Palestine Liberation Organization 2nd Cir. · Due Process · other party v. other party · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Medina v. Planned Parenthood South Atlantic 4th Cir. · Civil Rights · state or local government v. other party · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ |
| Kennedy v. Braidwood Management 5th Cir. · Economic Activity · government official or agency v. business or employer · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ |
| Parrish v. United States 4th Cir. · Judicial Power · criminal defendant or prisoner v. United States · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 8-1 | ✓ |
| Commissioner of Internal Revenue v. Zuch 3rd Cir. · Federal Taxation · government official or agency v. business or employer · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 8-1 | ✓ |
| Mahmoud v. Taylor 4th Cir. · First Amendment · other party v. state or local government · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ |
| Diamond Alternative Energy LLC v. Environmental Protection Agency D.C. Cir. · Judicial Power · business or employer v. government official or agency · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 7-2 | ✓ |
| Soto v. United States Fed. Cir. · Civil Rights · other party v. United States · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| A.J.T. v. Osseo Area Schools, Independent School District No. 279 8th Cir. · Civil Rights · other party v. state or local government · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Martin v. United States 11th Cir. · Economic Activity · other party v. United States · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Trump, President of the United States v. Casa, Inc. 4th Cir. · Judicial Power · government official or agency v. other party · lower court unclear |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ |
OT2023 · 40 of 55 right (72.7%) · picked the petitioner in 55 of 55 · trained on OT2022 (current Court)
Design chosen: unanimity stage on, linked votes on, at least 25 training cases per leaf. Chosen by fitting on OT2022 (first two-thirds of decisions) and scoring on OT2022 (last third).
| Case and the model's six inputs | Model | Decision | Right? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pulsifer v. United States 8th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · criminal defendant or prisoner v. United States · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Respondent 3-6 | ✗ |
| Consumer Financial Protection Bureau v. Community Financial Services Association of America, Limited 5th Cir. · Miscellaneous · government official or agency v. other party · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 7-2 | ✓ |
| Acheson Hotels, LLC v. Laufer 1st Cir. · Judicial Power · other party v. business or employer · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Murray v. Ubs Securities, LLC 2nd Cir. · Civil Rights · injured person or consumer v. business or employer · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Great Lakes Insurance Se v. Raiders Retreat Realty Co., LLC 3rd Cir. · Private Action · business or employer v. other party · lower court unclear · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Alexander v. South Carolina State Conference of the NAACP other court · Civil Rights · state or local government v. other party · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ |
| Culley v. Marshall 11th Cir. · Due Process · other party v. state or local government · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Respondent 3-6 | ✗ |
| Lindke v. Freed 6th Cir. · First Amendment · other party v. other party · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Vidal v. Elster Fed. Cir. · First Amendment · government official or agency v. business or employer · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Department of Agriculture Rural Development Rural Housing Service v. Kirtz 3rd Cir. · Economic Activity · government official or agency v. business or employer · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Respondent 0-9 | ✗ |
| United States v. Rahimi 5th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · United States v. criminal defendant or prisoner · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 8-1 | ✓ |
| Rudisill v. Mcdonough Fed. Cir. · Civil Rights · other party v. government official or agency · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 7-2 | ✓ |
| Muldrow v. City of ST. Louis, Missouri 8th Cir. · Civil Rights · other party v. state or local government · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo D.C. Cir. · Economic Activity · business or employer v. government official or agency · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-2 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-2 | ✓ |
| Wilkinson v. Garland 3rd Cir. · Civil Rights · other party v. government official or agency · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ |
| Campos-Chaves v. Garland 5th Cir. · Civil Rights · other party v. government official or agency · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Respondent 4-5 | ✗ |
| Mcelrath v. Georgia 11th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · criminal defendant or prisoner v. state or local government · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Moore v. United States 9th Cir. · Federal Taxation · other party v. United States · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Respondent 2-7 | ✗ |
| Securities and Exchange Commission v. Jarkesy 5th Cir. · Economic Activity · government official or agency v. business or employer · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Respondent 3-6 | ✗ |
| Brown v. United States 3rd Cir. · Criminal Procedure · criminal defendant or prisoner v. United States · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Respondent 3-6 | ✗ |
| Harrington v. Purdue Pharma L.P. 2nd Cir. · Economic Activity · business or employer v. other party · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 5-4 | ✓ |
| Federal Bureau of Investigation v. Fikre 9th Cir. · Judicial Power · government official or agency v. other party · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Respondent 0-9 | ✗ |
| Sheetz v. County of El Dorado, California 9th Cir. · Due Process · other party v. state or local government · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Office of the U.S. Trustee v. John Q. Hammons Fall 2006, LLC 10th Cir. · Economic Activity · government official or agency v. other party · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ |
| Smith v. Arizona 9th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · other party v. state or local government · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Macquarie Infrastructure Corp. v. Moab Partners, L.P. 2nd Cir. · Economic Activity · business or employer v. other party · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Devillier v. Texas 5th Cir. · Due Process · other party v. state or local government · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Corner Post v. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 8th Cir. · Economic Activity · business or employer v. government official or agency · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ |
| Bissonnette v. Lepage Bakeries Park ST., LLC 2nd Cir. · Unions · injured person or consumer v. business or employer · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Ohio v. Environmental Protection Agency D.C. Cir. · Economic Activity · state or local government v. government official or agency · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 5-4 | ✓ |
| Warner Chappell Music v. Neal 11th Cir. · Economic Activity · business or employer v. business or employer · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Respondent 3-6 | ✗ |
| Mcintosh v. United States 2nd Cir. · Criminal Procedure · criminal defendant or prisoner v. United States · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Respondent 0-9 | ✗ |
| Cantero v. Bank of America 2nd Cir. · Federalism · business or employer v. business or employer · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Garland v. Cargill 5th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · government official or agency v. other party · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Respondent 3-6 | ✗ |
| Coinbase v. Suski 9th Cir. · Economic Activity · business or employer v. other party · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Respondent 0-9 | ✗ |
| Murthy v. Missouri 5th Cir. · Judicial Power · government official or agency v. state or local government · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ |
| National Rifle Association of America v. Vullo 2nd Cir. · First Amendment · other party v. state or local government · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Diaz v. United States 9th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · criminal defendant or prisoner v. United States · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Respondent 3-6 | ✗ |
| Truck Insurance Exchange v. Kaiser Gypsum Company 4th Cir. · Economic Activity · business or employer v. business or employer · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 5-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 8-0 | ✓ |
| Texas v. New Mexico and Colorado other court · Interstate Relations · state or local government v. state or local government · lower court unclear · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 5-4 | ✓ |
| Becerra v. San Carlos Apache Tribe 9th Cir. · Civil Rights · government official or agency v. Indian or tribe · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Respondent 4-5 | ✗ |
| Harrow v. Department of Defense Fed. Cir. · Judicial Power · injured person or consumer v. government official or agency · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Food and Drug Administration v. Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine 5th Cir. · Privacy · government official or agency v. other party · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Erlinger v. United States 7th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · other party v. United States · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ |
| Connelly v. United States 8th Cir. · Federal Taxation · business or employer v. United States · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Respondent 0-9 | ✗ |
| Snyder v. United States 7th Cir. · Economic Activity · other party v. United States · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ |
| Chiaverini v. City of Napoleon, Ohio 6th Cir. · Civil Rights · criminal defendant or prisoner v. state or local government · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ |
| Fischer v. United States D.C. Cir. · Criminal Procedure · other party v. United States · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ |
| Thornell v. Jones 9th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · state or local government v. criminal defendant or prisoner · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ |
| City of Grants Pass, Oregon v. Johnson 9th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · state or local government v. other party · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ |
| Smith v. Spizzirri 9th Cir. · Unions · injured person or consumer v. business or employer · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Department of State v. Muã±oz 9th Cir. · Civil Rights · government official or agency v. other party · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ |
| Starbucks Corp. v. Mckinney 6th Cir. · Unions · business or employer v. government official or agency · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 8-1 | ✓ |
| Trump v. United States D.C. Cir. · Criminal Procedure · criminal defendant or prisoner v. United States · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 9-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ |
| Moody v. Netchoice, LLC 11th Cir. · First Amendment · state or local government v. business or employer · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 6-3 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
OT2022 · 30 of 55 right (54.5%) · picked the petitioner in 34 of 55 · trained on OT2020–OT2021 (previous Court; no tree for Jackson)
Design chosen: unanimity stage on, linked votes on, at least 15 training cases per leaf. Chosen by fitting on OT2020 and scoring on OT2021. OT2022 was Justice Jackson’s first term, so she had no votes to learn from; her vote is not predicted and each case is decided from eight predicted votes.
| Case and the model's six inputs | Model | Decision | Right? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sackett v. Environmental Protection Agency 9th Cir. · Economic Activity · other party v. government official or agency · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 9-0 unanimity tree |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Delaware v. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin other court · Interstate Relations · state or local government v. state or local government · lower court unclear · constitutional claim |
Respondent 0-8 Justice trees |
Respondent 0-9 | ✓ |
| Arellano v. Mcdonough Fed. Cir. · Civil Rights · other party v. government official or agency · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 8-0 Justice trees |
Respondent 0-9 | ✗ |
| Allen v. Milligan other court · Civil Rights · state or local government v. other party · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 8-0 Justice trees |
Respondent 4-5 | ✗ |
| Reed v. Goertz 5th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · criminal defendant or prisoner v. government official or agency · lower court conservative |
Respondent 2-6 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✗ |
| National Pork Producers Council v. Ross 9th Cir. · Economic Activity · business or employer v. state or local government · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 9-0 unanimity tree |
Respondent 4-5 | ✗ |
| Andy Warhol Foundation for the Visual Arts v. Goldsmith 2nd Cir. · Economic Activity · business or employer v. business or employer · lower court conservative |
Respondent 2-6 Justice trees |
Respondent 2-7 | ✓ |
| Helix Energy Solutions Group v. Hewitt 5th Cir. · Unions · business or employer v. injured person or consumer · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-2 Justice trees |
Respondent 3-6 | ✗ |
| Students for Fair Admissions Inc. v. President & Fellows of Harvard College 1st Cir. · Civil Rights · other party v. other party · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 6-2 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-2 | ✓ |
| Cruz v. Arizona 9th Cir. · Federalism · criminal defendant or prisoner v. state or local government · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Respondent 2-6 Justice trees |
Petitioner 5-4 | ✗ |
| Jones v. Hendrix 8th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · criminal defendant or prisoner v. government official or agency · lower court conservative |
Respondent 2-6 Justice trees |
Respondent 3-6 | ✓ |
| Bittner v. United States 5th Cir. · Federal Taxation · business or employer v. United States · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-2 Justice trees |
Petitioner 5-4 | ✓ |
| Axon Enterprise v. Federal Trade Commission 9th Cir. · Judicial Power · business or employer v. government official or agency · lower court conservative |
Respondent 2-6 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✗ |
| Mallory v. Norfolk Southern Railway Co. 3rd Cir. · Due Process · other party v. business or employer · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 8-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 5-4 | ✓ |
| Health and Hospital Corporation of Marion County, Indiana v. Talevski 7th Cir. · Civil Rights · other party v. other party · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 8-0 Justice trees |
Respondent 2-7 | ✗ |
| Haaland v. Brackeen 5th Cir. · Civil Rights · government official or agency v. other party · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Respondent 2-6 Justice trees |
Respondent 2-7 | ✓ |
| 303 Creative LLC v. Elenis 10th Cir. · Civil Rights · business or employer v. state or local government · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 6-2 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ |
| Bartenwerfer v. Buckley 9th Cir. · Economic Activity · business or employer v. other party · lower court conservative |
Respondent 2-6 Justice trees |
Respondent 0-9 | ✓ |
| U.S., ex rel. Polansky v. Executive Health Resources 3rd Cir. · Economic Activity · United States v. other party · lower court conservative |
Respondent 2-6 Justice trees |
Respondent 1-8 | ✓ |
| Percoco v. United States 2nd Cir. · Criminal Procedure · criminal defendant or prisoner v. United States · lower court conservative |
Respondent 2-6 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✗ |
| Wilkins v. United States 9th Cir. · Economic Activity · other party v. United States · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 8-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ |
| Ciminelli v. United States 2nd Cir. · Criminal Procedure · criminal defendant or prisoner v. United States · lower court conservative |
Respondent 2-6 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✗ |
| Moac Mall Holdings LLC v. Transform Holdco LLC 2nd Cir. · Economic Activity · business or employer v. other party · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 9-0 unanimity tree |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Moore v. Harper 4th Cir. · Civil Rights · politician or candidate v. other party · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 6-2 Justice trees |
Respondent 3-6 | ✗ |
| Ohio Adjutant Generalâs Department v. Federal Labor Relations Authority 6th Cir. · Unions · employee or union v. government official or agency · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-2 Justice trees |
Respondent 2-7 | ✗ |
| Glacier Northwest v. Int'l Brotherhood of Teamsters 9th Cir. · Unions · business or employer v. employee or union · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-2 Justice trees |
Petitioner 8-1 | ✓ |
| Financial Oversight and Management BD for Puerto Rico v. Centro de Periodismo Investigativo 1st Cir. · Miscellaneous · state or local government v. business or employer · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-2 Justice trees |
Petitioner 8-1 | ✓ |
| Turkiye Halk Bankasi A.S. v. United States 2nd Cir. · Criminal Procedure · other party v. United States · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 8-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Santos-Zacaria v. Garland 5th Cir. · Civil Rights · other party v. government official or agency · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 8-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Perez v. Sturgis Public Schools 6th Cir. · Civil Rights · other party v. state or local government · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 8-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Twitter v. Taamneh 9th Cir. · Economic Activity · business or employer v. other party · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 9-0 unanimity tree |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Dubin v. United States 5th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · criminal defendant or prisoner v. United States · lower court conservative |
Respondent 2-6 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✗ |
| Biden v. Nebraska other court · Economic Activity · government official or agency v. state or local government · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 9-0 unanimity tree |
Petitioner 6-3 | ✓ |
| Department of Education v. Brown other court · Judicial Power · government official or agency v. other party · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Respondent 2-6 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✗ |
| New York v. New Jersey other court · Interstate Relations · state or local government v. state or local government · lower court unclear · constitutional claim |
Respondent 0-8 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✗ |
| United States v. Hansen 9th Cir. · First Amendment · United States v. criminal defendant or prisoner · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 6-2 Justice trees |
Petitioner 7-2 | ✓ |
| Arizona v. Navajo Nation 9th Cir. · Civil Rights · state or local government v. Indian or tribe · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-2 Justice trees |
Petitioner 5-4 | ✓ |
| Coinbase, Inc. v. Bielski 9th Cir. · Economic Activity · business or employer v. other party · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 9-0 unanimity tree |
Petitioner 5-4 | ✓ |
| Abitron Austria GMBH v. Hetronic Int'l 10th Cir. · Economic Activity · business or employer v. business or employer · lower court conservative |
Respondent 2-6 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✗ |
| Jack Daniels Properties v. Vip Products LLC 9th Cir. · Economic Activity · business or employer v. business or employer · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 9-0 unanimity tree |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Amgen Inc. v. Sanofi Fed. Cir. · Economic Activity · business or employer v. business or employer · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 9-0 unanimity tree |
Respondent 0-9 | ✗ |
| Lora v. United States 2nd Cir. · Criminal Procedure · criminal defendant or prisoner v. United States · lower court conservative |
Respondent 2-6 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✗ |
| Smith v. United States 11th Cir. · Criminal Procedure · criminal defendant or prisoner v. United States · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Respondent 2-6 Justice trees |
Respondent 0-9 | ✓ |
| Samia v. United States 2nd Cir. · Criminal Procedure · criminal defendant or prisoner v. United States · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Respondent 2-6 Justice trees |
Respondent 3-6 | ✓ |
| Polselli v. Internal Revenue Service 6th Cir. · Federal Taxation · business or employer v. government official or agency · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-2 Justice trees |
Respondent 0-9 | ✗ |
| Slack Technologies v. Pirani 9th Cir. · Economic Activity · business or employer v. other party · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 9-0 unanimity tree |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Pugin v. Garland 4th Cir. · Civil Rights · other party v. government official or agency · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 8-0 Justice trees |
Respondent 3-6 | ✗ |
| Groff v. Dejoy 3rd Cir. · Civil Rights · injured person or consumer v. government official or agency · lower court conservative |
Respondent 2-6 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✗ |
| United States ex rel. Schutte v. Supervalu Inc. 7th Cir. · Economic Activity · other party v. business or employer · lower court conservative |
Petitioner 8-0 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Counterman v. Colorado 10th Cir. · First Amendment · criminal defendant or prisoner v. state or local government · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Respondent 2-6 Justice trees |
Petitioner 7-2 | ✗ |
| Lac Du Flambeau Band of Lake Superior Chippewa Indians v. Coughlin 1st Cir. · Economic Activity · Indian or tribe v. other party · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 9-0 unanimity tree |
Respondent 1-8 | ✗ |
| Dupree v. Younger 4th Cir. · Judicial Power · government official or agency v. criminal defendant or prisoner · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 6-2 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| Yegiazaryan v. Smagin 9th Cir. · Economic Activity · other party v. other party · lower court liberal |
Petitioner 9-0 unanimity tree |
Respondent 3-6 | ✗ |
| Tyler v. Hennepin County, Minnesota 8th Cir. · Due Process · business or employer v. state or local government · lower court liberal · constitutional claim |
Petitioner 6-2 Justice trees |
Petitioner 9-0 | ✓ |
| United States v. Texas 5th Cir. · Judicial Power · United States v. state or local government · lower court conservative · constitutional claim |
Respondent 2-6 Justice trees |
Petitioner 8-1 | ✗ |
What we learned
- The method runs, but it has no edge on today's Court. It never beat “the petitioner always wins” in OT2022–OT2025, and over all four terms trailed it by 3.6 points.
- It mostly learns the base rate. The Court reverses about two-thirds of the time. With few training cases, the model search keeps picking heavily pruned trees, which predict "reverse" almost everywhere (198 of 222 cases). When it does pick the respondent, it is usually wrong.
- More data didn't help. Training on five terms instead of the current Court's own did worse, so the problem is not only sample size: these six variables carry little signal for this Court.
- The 2002 result depended on a stable Court. The paper had eight terms of the same nine Justices. Today's Court has three terms together; a new Court leaves the method little to learn from.
- Votes: a small edge, mostly from one term. The trees got 65.1% of individual votes right, against 63.3% for predicting every Justice votes for the petitioner. Nearly all of that edge comes from OT2025 (64.1% right), a term in which only 56.3% of votes went to the petitioner; in the 2002 check the trees trailed that baseline (61.8% vs 65.0%).
Data and code
Every number on this page comes from /data/replication/ruger.json: the reproduction, the model search for each term, and every case with its inputs, predicted and actual votes. The study profile is in /data/replication/studies.json. Case data: Harold J. Spaeth et al., Supreme Court Database, 2025 Release 01; Martin–Quinn scores; OT2025 decisions coded by SCOTUS Analytics.
Updated 2026-10-05. Questions or corrections: contact us.