SCOTUS Analytics — Supreme Court predictions and results, OT 2025–2026

Probability estimates for argued Supreme Court cases, built from three methods: sentiment analysis of each justice's oral-argument questions, historical voting patterns from the Supreme Court Database (Spaeth), and Epstein–Landes–Posner question counts. 100 cases tracked: the OT 2026 docket of 42 cases (27 awaiting argument) and 66 decided. Also on this site: a searchable database of 9,399 Supreme Court decisions since 1946, 78 terms of Court analytics in charts, justice profiles, oral-argument analytics, our prediction accuracy scorecard, and the methodology.

Latest: heard or decided

Salazar v. Paramount Global (No. 25-459), argued 2026-10-14 — predicted 9-0 for Salazar (60%) · transcript
Federal Communications Commission v. Brown (No. 26A476) — decided 7-2 for FCC
Beaird v. United States (No. 25-5343), argued 2026-10-13 — predicted 9-0 for Beaird (77%) · transcript
Department of the Air Force v. Prutehi Guahan (No. 25-579), argued 2026-10-07 — predicted 5-4 for Department of the Air Force (53%) · transcript
Anderson v. Intel Corp. Investment Policy Committee (No. 25-498), argued 2026-10-06 — predicted 9-0 for Intel (65%) · transcript
Suncor Energy (U.S.A.) Inc. v. Commissioners of Boulder County (No. 25-170), argued 2026-10-05 — predicted 4-4 for Boulder County (58%) · transcript

OT 2026 — granted, awaiting argument

RiseAndShine Corp. v. PepsiCo, Inc. (No. 24-1016), argument not yet scheduled
Hoffmann v. WBI Energy Transmission, Inc. (No. 25-159), argument 2026-11-09
Crowther v. Board of Regents of the University System of Georgia (No. 25-183), argument 2026-11-30
Viramontes v. Cook County (No. 25-238, 25-566), argument 2026-12-02
Jouppi v. Alaska (No. 25-246), argument 2026-12-01
Younge v. Fulton Judicial Circuit District Attorney (No. 25-352), argument 2026-11-02
Nielsen v. Watanabe (No. 25-417), argument 2026-11-09
St. Mary Catholic Parish v. Roy (No. 25-581), argument 2026-11-03
International Partners for Ethical Care, Inc. v. Ferguson (No. 25-840), argument 2026-12-07
Wassily v. Blanche (No. 25-842), argument 2026-11-30
Grand v. City of University Heights (No. 25-965), argument 2026-12-09
Department of Labor v. Sun Valley Orchards, LLC (No. 25-966), argument 2026-11-10
Guerrero v. Johnson (No. 25-1003), argument 2026-11-04
Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota (No. 25-1017), argument 2026-12-08
Montoya Palacios v. Liggins (No. 25-1223), argument not yet scheduled
Apple Inc. v. Epic Games, Inc. (No. 25-1311), argument not yet scheduled
Maxwell v. Dinis (No. 25-5930), argument 2026-11-02
Kian v. Florida (No. 25-6623), argument not yet scheduled
Department of Homeland Security v. D.V.D. (No. 26-426), argument 2026-12-09
Missionaries of Saint John the Baptist, Inc. v. Frederic (No. 25-1131), argument not yet scheduled
Marschner v. Marschner (No. 25-1349), argument not yet scheduled
Rhoney v. Barbosa da Cunha (No. 26-104), argument not yet scheduled
U.S. DOGE Service v. United States District Court for the District of Columbia (No. 25-1103), argument not yet scheduled
Blanche v. Ozurumba (No. 25-1343), argument not yet scheduled
Berry v. United States (No. 25-7026), argument not yet scheduled
Association for Education Fairness v. Montgomery County Board of Education (No. 26-12), argument not yet scheduled
Department of Justice v. McNutt (No. 26-204), argument not yet scheduled

Argued, awaiting decision

Salazar v. Paramount Global (No. 25-459), argued 2026-10-14 — predicted 9-0 for Salazar (60%) · transcript
Beaird v. United States (No. 25-5343), argued 2026-10-13 — predicted 9-0 for Beaird (77%) · transcript
Department of the Air Force v. Prutehi Guahan (No. 25-579), argued 2026-10-07 — predicted 5-4 for Department of the Air Force (53%) · transcript
Anderson v. Intel Corp. Investment Policy Committee (No. 25-498), argued 2026-10-06 — predicted 9-0 for Intel (65%) · transcript
Suncor Energy (U.S.A.) Inc. v. Commissioners of Boulder County (No. 25-170), argued 2026-10-05 — predicted 4-4 for Boulder County (58%) · transcript
Johnson v. United States Congress (No. 25-735), argued 2026-10-05 — predicted 5-4 for Johnson (53%) · transcript

Dismissed before argument

Genalo v. Black (No. 25-886) — dismissed before argument

Decided (OT 2025, OT 2026)

Mullin, Sec. DHS v. Doe (No. 25-1083), argued 2026-04-29 — decided 6-3 for Mullin / DHS · transcript
Hikma v. Amarin (No. 24-889), argued 2026-04-29 — decided 9-0 for Hikma · transcript
Cisco v. Doe I (No. 24-856), argued 2026-04-28 — decided 6-3 for Cisco Systems · transcript
Monsanto Co. v. Durnell (No. 24-1068), argued 2026-04-27 — decided 7-2 for Monsanto · transcript
Chatrie v. United States (No. 25-112), argued 2026-04-27 — decided 6-3 for Chatrie · transcript
Federal Communications Commission v. AT&T (No. 25-406), argued 2026-04-22 — decided 8-1 for FCC · transcript
Blanche v. Lau (No. 25-429), argued 2026-04-22 — decided 6-3 for Blanche / United States · transcript
Sripetch v. SEC (No. 25-466), argued 2026-04-20 — decided 9-0 for SEC · transcript
T. M. v. Univ. of Maryland Medical System (No. 25-197), argued 2026-04-20 — decided 5-4 for Univ. of Maryland Medical System · transcript
Trump v. Barbara (No. 25-365), argued 2026-04-01 — decided 6-3 for Barbara · transcript
Flowers Foods v. Brock (No. 24-935), argued 2026-03-25 — decided 9-0 for Brock · transcript
Noem v. Al Otro Lado (No. 25-5), argued 2026-03-24 — decided 6-3 for Noem / DHS · transcript
Keathley v. Buddy Ayers Construction (No. 25-6), argued 2026-03-24 — decided 9-0 for Keathley · transcript
Watson v. Republican National Committee (No. 24-1260), argued 2026-03-23 — decided 5-4 for Watson / Mississippi · transcript
Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II, LLC (No. 24-1238), argued 2026-03-04 — decided 9-0 for Montgomery · transcript
Hunter v. United States (No. 24-1063), argued 2026-03-03 — decided 8-1 for Hunter · transcript
United States v. Hemani (No. 24-1234), argued 2026-03-02 — decided 9-0 for Hemani · transcript
Pung v. Isabella County (No. 25-95), argued 2026-02-25 — decided 9-0 for Isabella County · transcript
Enbridge Energy v. Nessel (No. 24-783), argued 2026-02-24 — decided 9-0 for Nessel · transcript
Havana Docks v. Royal Caribbean (No. 24-983), argued 2026-02-23 — decided 8-1 for Havana Docks · transcript
Exxon v. CIMEX (No. 24-699), argued 2026-02-23 — decided 6-3 for Exxon Mobil · transcript
Trump v. Cook (No. 25A312), argued 2026-01-21 — decided 5-4 for Cook · transcript
Wolford v. Lopez (No. 24-1046), argued 2026-01-20 — decided 6-3 for Wolford · transcript
Galette v. NJ Transit Corp. (No. 24-1021), argued 2026-01-14 — decided 9-0 for Galette · transcript
Little v. Hecox (No. 24-38), argued 2026-01-13 — decided 6-3 for Little / Idaho · transcript
West Virginia v. B.P.J. (No. 24-43), argued 2026-01-13 — decided 6-3 for West Virginia · transcript
Chevron USA v. Plaquemines Parish (No. 24-813), argued 2026-01-12 — decided 8-0 for Chevron · transcript
FS Credit Opportunities v. Saba Capital (No. 24-345), argued 2025-12-10 — decided 6-3 for FS Credit Opportunities Corp. · transcript
NRSC v. FEC (No. 24-621), argued 2025-12-09 — decided 6-3 for NRSC · transcript
Trump v. Slaughter (No. 25-332), argued 2025-12-08 — decided 6-3 for Trump · transcript
First Choice v. Platkin (No. 24-781), argued 2025-12-02 — decided 9-0 for First Choice · transcript
Cox v. Sony (No. 24-171), argued 2025-12-01 — decided 9-0 for Cox · transcript
Urias-Orellana v. Bondi (No. 24-777), argued 2025-12-01 — decided 9-0 for Bondi · transcript
Landor v. Louisiana Dept. of Corrections (No. 23-1197), argued 2025-11-10 — decided 6-3 for Louisiana Dept. of Corrections · transcript
Learning Resources v. Trump (No. 24-1287), argued 2025-11-05 — decided 6-3 for Learning Resources · transcript
Louisiana v. Callais (No. 24-109), argued 2025-10-15 — decided 6-3 for Callais · transcript
Chiles v. Salazar (No. 24-539), argued 2025-10-07 — decided 8-1 for Chiles · transcript
Trump v. California (No. 26A124, 26A139) — decided 6-3 for Trump (United States)
National Park Service v. National Trust for Historic Preservation (No. 26A203) — decided 5-4 for National Park Service
National Republican Congressional Committee v. Brown (No. 26A274) — decided 8-1 for NRCC
United States Postal Service v. California (No. 26A305) — decided 7-2 for California
Department of Homeland Security v. League of Women Voters (No. 26A308) — decided 6-3 for Department of Homeland Security
People Not Politicians v. Onder (No. 26A388) — decided for People Not Politicians (no noted dissent)
Nelsen v. Pike (No. 26A428) — decided 6-3 for Nelsen (Tennessee)
M & K Employee Solutions, LLC v. Trustees of IAM Nat. Pension Fund (No. 23-1209), argued 2026-01-20 — decided 9-0 for Trustees of the IAM National Pension Fund · transcript
Rico v. United States (No. 24-1056), argued 2025-11-03 — decided 8-1 for Rico · transcript
Postal Service v. Konan (No. 24-351), argued 2025-10-08 — decided 5-4 for Postal Service · transcript
Berk v. Choy (No. 24-440), argued 2025-10-06 — decided 9-0 for Berk · transcript
Ellingburg v. United States (No. 24-482), argued 2025-10-14 — decided 9-0 for Ellingburg · transcript
Bowe v. United States (No. 24-5438), argued 2025-10-14 — decided 5-4 for Bowe · transcript
Fernandez v. United States (No. 24-556), argued 2025-11-12 — decided 8-1 for United States · transcript
Villarreal v. Texas (No. 24-557), argued 2025-10-06 — decided 9-0 for Texas · transcript
Bost v. Illinois Bd. of Elections (No. 24-568), argued 2025-10-08 — decided 7-2 for Bost · transcript
Barrett v. United States (No. 24-5774), argued 2025-10-07 — decided 9-0 for Barrett · transcript
Case v. Montana (No. 24-624), argued 2025-10-15 — decided 9-0 for Montana · transcript
Hain Celestial Group, Inc. v. Palmquist (No. 24-724), argued 2025-11-04 — decided 9-0 for Palmquist · transcript
Pitchford v. Cain (No. 24-7351), argued 2026-03-31 — decided 5-4 for Pitchford · transcript
GEO Group, Inc. v. Menocal (No. 24-758), argued 2025-11-10 — decided 9-0 for Menocal · transcript
Coney Island Auto Parts Unlimited, Inc. v. Burton (No. 24-808), argued 2025-11-04 — decided 9-0 for Burton · transcript
Rutherford v. United States (No. 24-820), argued 2025-11-12 — decided 6-3 for United States · transcript
Hamm v. Smith (No. 24-872), argued 2025-12-10 — decided 5-4 for Smith · transcript
Hencely v. Fluor Corp. (No. 24-924), argued 2025-11-03 — decided 6-3 for Hencely · transcript
Olivier v. City of Brandon (No. 24-993), argued 2025-12-03 — decided 9-0 for Olivier · transcript
Abouammo v. United States (No. 25-5146), argued 2026-03-30 — decided 9-0 for Abouammo · transcript
Jules v. Andre Balazs Properties (No. 25-83), argued 2026-03-30 — decided 9-0 for Andre Balazs Properties · transcript
Federal Communications Commission v. Brown (No. 26A476) — decided 7-2 for FCC

Cases

The latest cases heard or decided, then the current term's docket and last term's decisions

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