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P., A MINOR, ET AL.", "slug": "hain-celestial-group-v-palmquist", "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "respondent", "correct": true, "turnsPet": 30, "turnsRes": 14, "amicus": 0, "cutoffsAll": -17, "oralOnly": "respondent" }, { "docket": "24-7351", "caseId": "2025-050", "name": "TERRY PITCHFORD, PETITIONER V. BURL CAIN, COMMISSIONER, MISSISSIPPI DEPARTMENT OF CORRECTIONS", "slug": "pitchford-v-cain", "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "turnsPet": 78, "turnsRes": 71, "amicus": -1, "cutoffsAll": 6, "oralOnly": "respondent" }, { "docket": "24-758", "caseId": "2025-051", "name": "GEO GROUP, INC. V. MENOCAL ET AL.", "slug": "geo-group-v-menocal", "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "turnsPet": 17, "turnsRes": 16, "amicus": -1, "cutoffsAll": 1, "oralOnly": "petitioner" }, { "docket": "24-777", "caseId": "2025-003", "name": "URIAS-ORELLANA v. BONDI, ATTORNEY GENERAL", "slug": "urias-orellana-v-bondi", "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "turnsPet": 37, "turnsRes": 17, "amicus": 0, "cutoffsAll": -9, "oralOnly": "petitioner" }, { "docket": "24-781", "caseId": "2025-008", "name": "FIRST CHOICE WOMEN'S RESOURCE CENTERS, INC. v. DAVENPORT, ATTORNEY GENERAL OF NEW JERSEY", "slug": "first-choice-v-platkin", "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "turnsPet": 40, "turnsRes": 50, "amicus": 1, "cutoffsAll": 29, "oralOnly": "petitioner" }, { "docket": "24-783", "caseId": "2025-007", "name": "ENBRIDGE ENERGY, LP, et al. v. NESSEL, ATTORNEY GENERAL OF MICHIGAN", "slug": "enbridge-v-nessel", "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "turnsPet": 49, "turnsRes": 29, "amicus": 0, "cutoffsAll": 3, "oralOnly": "respondent" }, { "docket": "24-808", "caseId": "2025-052", "name": "CONEY ISLAND AUTO PARTS UNLIMITED, INC. V. BURTON, CHAPTER 7 TRUSTEE FOR VISTA-PRO AUTOMOTIVE, LLC", "slug": "coney-island-auto-parts-unlimited-v-burton", "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "respondent", "correct": true, "turnsPet": 29, "turnsRes": 21, "amicus": 0, "cutoffsAll": -1, "oralOnly": "respondent" }, { "docket": "24-813", "caseId": "2025-006", "name": "CHEVRON U.S.A. INC., et al. v. PLAQUEMINES PARISH, LOUISIANA, et al.", "slug": "chevron-v-plaquemines", "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "turnsPet": 40, "turnsRes": 12, "amicus": 1, "cutoffsAll": -19, "oralOnly": "petitioner" }, { "docket": "24-820", "caseId": "2025-053", "name": "DANIEL RUTHERFORD V. UNITED STATES (TOGETHER WITH JOHNNIE MARKEL CARTER V. UNITED STATES, NO. 24-860)", "slug": "rutherford-v-united-states", "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "turnsPet": 52, "turnsRes": 19, "amicus": 1, "cutoffsAll": -12, "oralOnly": "petitioner" }, { "docket": "24-856", "caseId": "2025-022", "name": "CISCO SYSTEMS, INC., et al. v. DOE I, et al.", "slug": "cisco-v-doe", "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "turnsPet": 83, "turnsRes": 28, "amicus": 1, "cutoffsAll": -25, "oralOnly": "petitioner" }, { "docket": "24-872", "caseId": "2025-054", "name": "JOHN Q. HAMM, COMMISSIONER, ALABAMA DEPARTMENT OF CORRECTIONS V. JOSEPH CLIFTON SMITH", "slug": "hamm-v-smith", "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "turnsPet": 113, "turnsRes": 65, "amicus": 1, "cutoffsAll": -34, "oralOnly": "petitioner" }, { "docket": "24-889", "caseId": "2025-014", "name": "HIKMA PHARMACEUTICALS USA INC. v. AMARIN PHARMA, INC.", "slug": "hikma-v-amarin", "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "turnsPet": 45, "turnsRes": 14, "amicus": 1, "cutoffsAll": 3, "oralOnly": "petitioner" }, { "docket": "24-924", "caseId": "2025-055", "name": "WINSTON T. HENCELY V. FLUOR CORPORATION, ET AL.", "slug": "hencely-v-fluor", "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "turnsPet": 55, "turnsRes": 67, "amicus": -1, "cutoffsAll": 29, "oralOnly": "petitioner" }, { "docket": "24-935", "caseId": "2025-012", "name": "FLOWERS FOODS, INC., et al. v. BROCK", "slug": "flowers-foods-v-brock", "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "turnsPet": 44, "turnsRes": 47, "amicus": 0, "cutoffsAll": -16, "oralOnly": "petitioner" }, { "docket": "24-983", "caseId": "2025-011", "name": "HAVANA DOCKS CORPORATION v. ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES, LTD., et al.", "slug": "havana-docks-v-royal-caribbean", "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "turnsPet": 88, "turnsRes": 22, "amicus": 1, "cutoffsAll": -8, "oralOnly": "petitioner" }, { "docket": "24-993", "caseId": "2025-056", "name": "OLIVIER V. CITY OF BRANDON, MISSISSIPPI, ET AL.", "slug": "olivier-v-city-of-brandon", "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "turnsPet": 75, "turnsRes": 21, "amicus": 1, "cutoffsAll": -35, "oralOnly": "petitioner" }, { "docket": "25-1083", "caseId": "2025-027", "name": "MULLIN, et al. v. DOE, et al.", "slug": "mullin-v-doe", "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "turnsPet": 61, "turnsRes": 79, "amicus": -1, "cutoffsAll": -2, "oralOnly": "petitioner" }, { "docket": "25-112", "caseId": "2025-030", "name": "CHATRIE v. UNITED STATES", "slug": "chatrie-v-united-states", "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "turnsPet": 78, "turnsRes": 77, "amicus": -1, "cutoffsAll": 20, "oralOnly": "petitioner" }, { "docket": "25-197", "caseId": "2025-019", "name": "T. M. v. UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND MEDICAL SYSTEM CORPORATION", "slug": "tm-v-univ-maryland-medical", "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "turnsPet": 36, "turnsRes": 20, "amicus": 0, "cutoffsAll": -16, "oralOnly": "petitioner" }, { "docket": "25-332", "caseId": "2025-032", "name": "TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES v. SLAUGHTER, et al.", "slug": "trump-v-slaughter", "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "turnsPet": 79, "turnsRes": 75, "amicus": 0, "cutoffsAll": 21, "oralOnly": "petitioner" }, { "docket": "25-365", "caseId": "2025-036", "name": "TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES, et al. v. BARBARA, et al.", "slug": "trump-v-barbara", "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "respondent", "correct": true, "turnsPet": 39, "turnsRes": 41, "amicus": 0, "cutoffsAll": -26, "oralOnly": "respondent" }, { "docket": "25-406", "caseId": "2025-013", "name": "FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION, et al. v. AT&T INC., et al.", "slug": "fcc-v-att", "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "turnsPet": 29, "turnsRes": 15, "amicus": 0, "cutoffsAll": -15, "oralOnly": "petitioner" }, { "docket": "25-429", "caseId": "2025-021", "name": "BLANCHE, ACTING ATTORNEY GENERAL v. LAU", "slug": "blanche-v-lau", "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "turnsPet": 83, "turnsRes": 36, "amicus": 0, "cutoffsAll": -21, "oralOnly": "respondent" }, { "docket": "25-466", "caseId": "2025-015", "name": "SRIPETCH v. SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION", "slug": "sripetch-v-sec", "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "turnsPet": 61, "turnsRes": 20, "amicus": 0, "cutoffsAll": -11, "oralOnly": "respondent" }, { "docket": "25-5", "caseId": "2025-028", "name": "NOEM, SECRETARY OF HOMELAND SECURITY, et al. v. AL OTRO LADO, et al.", "slug": "noem-v-al-otro-lado", "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "turnsPet": 54, "turnsRes": 38, "amicus": 0, "cutoffsAll": 19, "oralOnly": "petitioner" }, { "docket": "25-5146", "caseId": "2025-057", "name": "AHMAD ABOUAMMO V. UNITED STATES", "slug": "abouammo-v-united-states", "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "turnsPet": 5, "turnsRes": 60, "amicus": -1, "cutoffsAll": 58, "oralOnly": "respondent" }, { "docket": "25-6", "caseId": "2025-017", "name": "KEATHLEY v. BUDDY AYERS CONSTRUCTION, INC.", "slug": "keathley-v-buddy-ayers", "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "turnsPet": 53, "turnsRes": 9, "amicus": 1, "cutoffsAll": -11, "oralOnly": "petitioner" }, { "docket": "25-83", "caseId": "2025-058", "name": "JULES V. ANDRE BALAZS PROPERTIES, ET AL.", "slug": "jules-v-andre-balazs-properties", "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "turnsPet": 47, "turnsRes": 17, "amicus": 0, "cutoffsAll": -15, "oralOnly": "petitioner" }, { "docket": "25-95", "caseId": "2025-025", "name": "PUNG, PERSONAL REPRESENTATIVE v. ISABELLA COUNTY, MICHIGAN, et al.", "slug": "pung-v-isabella-county", "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "turnsPet": 71, "turnsRes": 24, "amicus": 0, "cutoffsAll": -28, "oralOnly": "respondent" } ] }, "check": { "both": { "accuracy": 0.7446, "cases": 697, "agreement": 0.934, "matched": 697 }, "oral": { "accuracy": 0.7102, "cases": 697 }, "scdb": { "accuracy": 0.6212, "cases": 697 }, "published": { "accuracy": 0.7389, "cases": 697, "petitionerRate": 0.6585 }, "settings": { "rounds": 60, "trees": 200 }, "quick": { "rounds": 10, "trees": 100, "both": 0.726, "oral": 0.7202, "scdb": 0.6485, "agreement": 0.9699 } }, "paper": { "citation": "Aaron Russell Kaufman, Peter Kraft & Maya Sen, Improving Supreme Court Forecasting Using Boosted Decision Trees, Political Analysis 27(3): 381–387 (2019)", "reported": { "terms": "OT2005–OT2014 (tenfold cross-validation)", "both": 0.7404, "oral": 0.725, "scdb": 0.606, "baseline": 0.6798 } }, "method": "- Same inputs, coding and model, re-implemented (SAMME.R written out, since current\n scikit-learn only offers SAMME). Boosting rounds and forest size are reduced to what\n runs in minutes; the check below shows the results are stable well before that.\n- Check: our model on the authors' own feature table, scored the same way, and\n compared case by case with their published predictions (results_kks.csv).\n- Our inputs: the same 47 oral-argument variables computed from the Court's official\n transcripts, OT2010-OT2025, with our parser (sides from each transcript's list of\n appearances; the parser now recognizes every Justice since OT2005, not only the\n current nine). Justices, by the paper's rule (those who sat and spoke throughout the\n window): for OT2010-OT2019, Roberts, Ginsburg, Breyer, Alito, Sotomayor and Kagan;\n for forecasts trained from OT2010, the five who sat throughout OT2010-OT2025 -\n Roberts, Thomas, Alito, Sotomayor and Kagan. Database inputs from SCDB 2025_01, and\n for OT2025 from our supplement and coded fields (the origin court is taken to be the\n court below; agency involvement is unknown and set to none).\n- Paper's design on a later decade: tenfold cross-validation in docket order, OT2010-2019.\n- Applied to OT2022-OT2025: each term trained only on earlier terms (from OT2010).", "signal": { "note": "All Justices' turns while each side argued (rebuttal counts for the petitioner); ties and one-sided transcripts left out.", "byTerm": [ { "term": 2010, "cases": 72, "fewerTurnsWins": 0.639 }, { "term": 2011, "cases": 65, "fewerTurnsWins": 0.646 }, { "term": 2012, "cases": 64, "fewerTurnsWins": 0.547 }, { "term": 2013, "cases": 67, "fewerTurnsWins": 0.582 }, { "term": 2014, "cases": 61, "fewerTurnsWins": 0.607 }, { "term": 2015, "cases": 66, "fewerTurnsWins": 0.606 }, { "term": 2016, "cases": 58, "fewerTurnsWins": 0.552 }, { "term": 2017, "cases": 58, "fewerTurnsWins": 0.431 }, { "term": 2018, "cases": 66, "fewerTurnsWins": 0.515 }, { "term": 2019, "cases": 52, "fewerTurnsWins": 0.615 }, { "term": 2020, "cases": 52, "fewerTurnsWins": 0.346 }, { "term": 2021, "cases": 58, "fewerTurnsWins": 0.431 }, { "term": 2022, "cases": 51, "fewerTurnsWins": 0.647 }, { "term": 2023, "cases": 55, "fewerTurnsWins": 0.527 }, { "term": 2024, "cases": 59, "fewerTurnsWins": 0.373 }, { "term": 2025, "cases": 53, "fewerTurnsWins": 0.547 } ], "before": { "terms": "OT2010–OT2019", "cases": 629, "fewerTurnsWins": 0.576 }, "after": { "terms": "OT2020–OT2025", "cases": 328, "fewerTurnsWins": 0.476 }, "authors": { "terms": "OT2005–OT2014", "fewerTurnsWins": 0.628, "source": "their feature table, five Justices" } } }