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   },
   {
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    "name": "MONSANTO COMPANY v. DURNELL",
    "slug": "monsanto-v-durnell",
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    "correct": true,
    "reverseVotes": "9-0",
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   },
   {
    "docketId": "2025-027-01",
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    "name": "MULLIN, et al. v. DOE, et al.",
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    "correct": true,
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   },
   {
    "docketId": "2025-028-01",
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    "name": "NOEM, SECRETARY OF HOMELAND SECURITY, et al. v. AL OTRO LADO, et al.",
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   },
   {
    "docketId": "2025-029-01",
    "caseId": "2025-029",
    "name": "WOLFORD, et al. v. LOPEZ, ATTORNEY GENERAL OF HAWAII",
    "slug": "wolford-v-lopez",
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   },
   {
    "docketId": "2025-030-01",
    "caseId": "2025-030",
    "name": "CHATRIE v. UNITED STATES",
    "slug": "chatrie-v-united-states",
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    "actualReverse": 1,
    "correct": true,
    "reverseVotes": "9-0",
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    "baselineReverse": 1,
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   },
   {
    "docketId": "2025-032-01",
    "caseId": "2025-032",
    "name": "TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES v. SLAUGHTER, et al.",
    "slug": "trump-v-slaughter",
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    "actualReverse": 1,
    "correct": true,
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   },
   {
    "docketId": "2025-033-01",
    "caseId": "2025-033",
    "name": "WATSON, SECRETARY OF STATE OF MISSISSIPPI v. REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE, et al.",
    "slug": "watson-v-rnc",
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    "correct": true,
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   },
   {
    "docketId": "2025-034-01",
    "caseId": "2025-034",
    "name": "LITTLE, GOVERNOR OF IDAHO, et al. v. HECOX, et al.",
    "slug": "little-v-hecox",
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    "actualReverse": 1,
    "correct": true,
    "reverseVotes": "7-2",
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   },
   {
    "docketId": "2025-035-01",
    "caseId": "2025-035",
    "name": "NATIONAL REPUBLICAN SENATORIAL COMMITTEE, et al. v. FEDERAL ELECTION COMMISSION, et al.",
    "slug": "nrsc-v-fec",
    "predictedReverse": 1,
    "actualReverse": 1,
    "correct": true,
    "reverseVotes": "7-2",
    "actualReverseVotes": "6-3",
    "baselineReverse": 1,
    "predecisionReverse": 1
   },
   {
    "docketId": "2025-036-01",
    "caseId": "2025-036",
    "name": "TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES, et al. v. BARBARA, et al.",
    "slug": "trump-v-barbara",
    "predictedReverse": 1,
    "actualReverse": 0,
    "correct": false,
    "reverseVotes": "9-0",
    "actualReverseVotes": "3-6",
    "baselineReverse": 1,
    "predecisionReverse": 1
   },
   {
    "docketId": "2025-037-01",
    "caseId": "2025-037",
    "name": "WEST VIRGINIA, et al. v. B. P. J.",
    "slug": "west-virginia-v-bpj",
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    "actualReverse": 1,
    "correct": true,
    "reverseVotes": "8-1",
    "actualReverseVotes": "6-3",
    "baselineReverse": 1,
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   },
   {
    "docketId": "2025-038-01",
    "caseId": "2025-038",
    "name": "M & K EMPLOYEE SOLUTIONS, LLC, ET AL. V. TRUSTEES OF THE IAM NATIONAL PENSION FUND",
    "slug": "m-and-k-v-iam-pension-fund",
    "predictedReverse": 1,
    "actualReverse": 0,
    "correct": false,
    "reverseVotes": "9-0",
    "actualReverseVotes": "0-9",
    "baselineReverse": 1,
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   },
   {
    "docketId": "2025-039-01",
    "caseId": "2025-039",
    "name": "ISABEL RICO V. UNITED STATES",
    "slug": "rico-v-united-states",
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    "actualReverse": 1,
    "correct": true,
    "reverseVotes": "8-1",
    "actualReverseVotes": "8-1",
    "baselineReverse": 1,
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   },
   {
    "docketId": "2025-040-01",
    "caseId": "2025-040",
    "name": "UNITED STATES POSTAL SERVICE ET AL. V. KONAN",
    "slug": "postal-service-v-konan",
    "predictedReverse": 1,
    "actualReverse": 1,
    "correct": true,
    "reverseVotes": "9-0",
    "actualReverseVotes": "5-4",
    "baselineReverse": 1,
    "predecisionReverse": 1
   },
   {
    "docketId": "2025-041-01",
    "caseId": "2025-041",
    "name": "HAROLD BERK V. WILSON CHOY, ET AL.",
    "slug": "berk-v-choy",
    "predictedReverse": 1,
    "actualReverse": 1,
    "correct": true,
    "reverseVotes": "9-0",
    "actualReverseVotes": "9-0",
    "baselineReverse": 1,
    "predecisionReverse": 1
   },
   {
    "docketId": "2025-042-01",
    "caseId": "2025-042",
    "name": "HOLSEY ELLINGBURG, JR. V. UNITED STATES",
    "slug": "ellingburg-v-united-states",
    "predictedReverse": 1,
    "actualReverse": 1,
    "correct": true,
    "reverseVotes": "9-0",
    "actualReverseVotes": "9-0",
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   },
   {
    "docketId": "2025-043-01",
    "caseId": "2025-043",
    "name": "MICHAEL S. BOWE V. UNITED STATES",
    "slug": "bowe-v-united-states",
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    "actualReverse": 1,
    "correct": true,
    "reverseVotes": "6-3",
    "actualReverseVotes": "5-4",
    "baselineReverse": 1,
    "predecisionReverse": 1
   },
   {
    "docketId": "2025-044-01",
    "caseId": "2025-044",
    "name": "FERNANDEZ V. UNITED STATES",
    "slug": "fernandez-v-united-states",
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    "actualReverse": 0,
    "correct": false,
    "reverseVotes": "8-1",
    "actualReverseVotes": "1-8",
    "baselineReverse": 1,
    "predecisionReverse": 1
   },
   {
    "docketId": "2025-045-01",
    "caseId": "2025-045",
    "name": "VILLARREAL V. TEXAS",
    "slug": "villarreal-v-texas",
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    "actualReverse": 0,
    "correct": false,
    "reverseVotes": "9-0",
    "actualReverseVotes": "0-9",
    "baselineReverse": 1,
    "predecisionReverse": 1
   },
   {
    "docketId": "2025-046-01",
    "caseId": "2025-046",
    "name": "BOST ET AL. V. ILLINOIS STATE BOARD OF ELECTIONS ET AL.",
    "slug": "bost-v-illinois-bd-of-elections",
    "predictedReverse": 1,
    "actualReverse": 1,
    "correct": true,
    "reverseVotes": "9-0",
    "actualReverseVotes": "7-2",
    "baselineReverse": 1,
    "predecisionReverse": 1
   },
   {
    "docketId": "2025-047-01",
    "caseId": "2025-047",
    "name": "DWAYNE BARRETT V. UNITED STATES",
    "slug": "barrett-v-united-states",
    "predictedReverse": 1,
    "actualReverse": 1,
    "correct": true,
    "reverseVotes": "6-3",
    "actualReverseVotes": "9-0",
    "baselineReverse": 1,
    "predecisionReverse": 1
   },
   {
    "docketId": "2025-048-01",
    "caseId": "2025-048",
    "name": "WILLIAM TREVOR CASE V. MONTANA",
    "slug": "case-v-montana",
    "predictedReverse": 1,
    "actualReverse": 0,
    "correct": false,
    "reverseVotes": "9-0",
    "actualReverseVotes": "0-9",
    "baselineReverse": 1,
    "predecisionReverse": 1
   },
   {
    "docketId": "2025-049-01",
    "caseId": "2025-049",
    "name": "HAIN CELESTIAL GROUP, INC., ET AL. V. PALMQUIST, INDIVIDUALLY AND AS NEXT FRIEND OF E. P., A MINOR, ET AL.",
    "slug": "hain-celestial-group-v-palmquist",
    "predictedReverse": 1,
    "actualReverse": 0,
    "correct": false,
    "reverseVotes": "9-0",
    "actualReverseVotes": "0-9",
    "baselineReverse": 1,
    "predecisionReverse": 1
   },
   {
    "docketId": "2025-050-01",
    "caseId": "2025-050",
    "name": "TERRY PITCHFORD, PETITIONER V. BURL CAIN, COMMISSIONER, MISSISSIPPI DEPARTMENT OF CORRECTIONS",
    "slug": "pitchford-v-cain",
    "predictedReverse": 1,
    "actualReverse": 1,
    "correct": true,
    "reverseVotes": "9-0",
    "actualReverseVotes": "5-4",
    "baselineReverse": 1,
    "predecisionReverse": 1
   },
   {
    "docketId": "2025-051-01",
    "caseId": "2025-051",
    "name": "GEO GROUP, INC. V. MENOCAL ET AL.",
    "slug": "geo-group-v-menocal",
    "predictedReverse": 1,
    "actualReverse": 0,
    "correct": false,
    "reverseVotes": "9-0",
    "actualReverseVotes": "0-9",
    "baselineReverse": 1,
    "predecisionReverse": 1
   },
   {
    "docketId": "2025-052-01",
    "caseId": "2025-052",
    "name": "CONEY ISLAND AUTO PARTS UNLIMITED, INC. V. BURTON, CHAPTER 7 TRUSTEE FOR VISTA-PRO AUTOMOTIVE, LLC",
    "slug": "coney-island-auto-parts-unlimited-v-burton",
    "predictedReverse": 1,
    "actualReverse": 0,
    "correct": false,
    "reverseVotes": "9-0",
    "actualReverseVotes": "0-9",
    "baselineReverse": 1,
    "predecisionReverse": 1
   },
   {
    "docketId": "2025-053-01",
    "caseId": "2025-053",
    "name": "DANIEL RUTHERFORD V. UNITED STATES (TOGETHER WITH JOHNNIE MARKEL CARTER V. UNITED STATES, NO. 24-860)",
    "slug": "rutherford-v-united-states",
    "predictedReverse": 1,
    "actualReverse": 0,
    "correct": false,
    "reverseVotes": "6-3",
    "actualReverseVotes": "3-6",
    "baselineReverse": 1,
    "predecisionReverse": 1
   },
   {
    "docketId": "2025-054-01",
    "caseId": "2025-054",
    "name": "JOHN Q. HAMM, COMMISSIONER, ALABAMA DEPARTMENT OF CORRECTIONS V. JOSEPH CLIFTON SMITH",
    "slug": "hamm-v-smith",
    "predictedReverse": 1,
    "actualReverse": 0,
    "correct": false,
    "reverseVotes": "9-0",
    "actualReverseVotes": "0-9",
    "baselineReverse": 1,
    "predecisionReverse": 1
   },
   {
    "docketId": "2025-055-01",
    "caseId": "2025-055",
    "name": "WINSTON T. HENCELY V. FLUOR CORPORATION, ET AL.",
    "slug": "hencely-v-fluor",
    "predictedReverse": 1,
    "actualReverse": 1,
    "correct": true,
    "reverseVotes": "9-0",
    "actualReverseVotes": "6-3",
    "baselineReverse": 1,
    "predecisionReverse": 1
   },
   {
    "docketId": "2025-056-01",
    "caseId": "2025-056",
    "name": "OLIVIER V. CITY OF BRANDON, MISSISSIPPI, ET AL.",
    "slug": "olivier-v-city-of-brandon",
    "predictedReverse": 1,
    "actualReverse": 1,
    "correct": true,
    "reverseVotes": "9-0",
    "actualReverseVotes": "9-0",
    "baselineReverse": 1,
    "predecisionReverse": 1
   },
   {
    "docketId": "2025-057-01",
    "caseId": "2025-057",
    "name": "AHMAD ABOUAMMO V. UNITED STATES",
    "slug": "abouammo-v-united-states",
    "predictedReverse": 1,
    "actualReverse": 1,
    "correct": true,
    "reverseVotes": "9-0",
    "actualReverseVotes": "9-0",
    "baselineReverse": 1,
    "predecisionReverse": 1
   },
   {
    "docketId": "2025-058-01",
    "caseId": "2025-058",
    "name": "JULES V. ANDRE BALAZS PROPERTIES, ET AL.",
    "slug": "jules-v-andre-balazs-properties",
    "predictedReverse": 1,
    "actualReverse": 0,
    "correct": false,
    "reverseVotes": "9-0",
    "actualReverseVotes": "0-9",
    "baselineReverse": 1,
    "predecisionReverse": 1
   }
  ]
 },
 "method": "- The modern Supreme Court Database (SCDB 2025 Release 01, OT1946-OT2024). The\n  authors trained from 1791; we train from 1946 and, like them, give the model 25\n  terms of history before scoring (so scoring starts in OT1971).\n- The authors' features, coding maps (circuit and party groups, outcome table),\n  forest settings and baseline, re-implemented without pandas. The forest uses a\n  fixed random seed so results are reproducible.\n- Two versions. \"As published\" keeps the decision month and the argument-to-decision\n  delay, which are only known once the decision is out (the paper argues the delay can\n  be updated while a case is pending). \"Pre-decision\" drops both.\n- Check: the authors' own per-case predictions (data/output/raw_docket_case_model_\n  growing_random_forest_5.csv.gz in their repository) are compared with ours, case by\n  case, for OT1971-OT2014.\n- Applied to OT2022-OT2025, each term trained only on earlier terms. OT2025 is not in\n  the database yet: its codes come from our supplement (issue, direction, disposition),\n  data/curated/ot2025-features.json and data/curated/ot2025-scdb-codes.json (parties,\n  cert reason, lower-court disposition, law type, coded from the opinions); the law and\n  agency codes are left blank.",
 "paperMethod": "- Unit: every Justice vote in the Supreme Court Database (Legacy release, 1791-2015),\n  all decision types. Target: the vote mapped to affirm / reverse / other through a\n  vote x case-disposition table (dissents flip the disposition; jurisdictional\n  dissents and unclear dispositions are \"other\"). A case is \"reverse\" when its\n  disposition is a reversal or vacatur; the predicted case outcome is reverse when at\n  least half the predicted votes are reverse.\n- Features (1,501 columns): natural court; argument month; decision month; weeks from\n  argument to decision; Justice; petitioner and respondent (raw codes and grouped);\n  jurisdiction; administrative action; source and origin court (mapped to circuit);\n  lower-court disagreement; cert reason; lower-court disposition (as affirm/reverse);\n  issue; issue area; law type; law; and \"behavior\" features: for the Justice and the\n  whole Court, the previous term's and all prior terms' mean vote direction, reversal\n  rate and agreement with the majority, the Court-minus-Justice differences, and the\n  lower court's direction minus the Justice's mean direction.\n- Model: a random forest retrained every term on all earlier terms, with 125 + 5 x\n  (terms elapsed) trees, class weights set to the training class frequencies, and\n  min_samples_leaf chosen from {1, 2} by 3-fold cross-validated grid search.\n- Baseline: the most frequent vote outcome over the previous 10 terms (M = 10).\n- Reported (1816-2015): 70.2% of cases (M = 10: 67.5%) and 71.9% of votes; over the\n  last century, nearly 5 points better than M = 10; \"the Roberts Court is less\n  predictable than its immediate predecessors\"."
}