{ "note": "Why the procedural-technical unanimity rule didn't fire, and what should replace it.\n\nOT2025: 9 of our 32 scored forecasts were unanimous; we called 9-0 once (Louisiana\nv. Callais, wrong). The pipeline has a rule meant to stop this -- the case-framer's\n`track`, and the synthesizer's \"procedural-technical -> 9-0 prior 35-45%, collapse\ntoward unanimity absent a named dissenter\". This module audits whether that rule\nexisted, was followed, or was overridden for each forecast, then back-tests\nexplicit unanimity defaults.\n\n - Audit: per case, the frame/track (and whether it was committed before the\n forecast froze), when the rule text entered the repo (git), our frozen split\n distribution and its P(unanimous), the actual split.\n - Track proxy: 23 of 32 cases have no frame, so a mechanical version of the\n framer's rubric is applied to the question presented (meta.json as committed\n at the frozen sha). Where a pre-freeze frame exists its track is used instead.\n - Rules on OT2025 (back-test only, winner calls never change): split accuracy\n under the scorecard's definition (headline string == actual) and the strict\n one (also winner right), unanimous recall/precision, per-Justice accuracy with\n every Justice set to our predicted winner in a unanimity call.\n - SCDB rules on OT2015-24, out of sample by term: a rule beats our divided call\n on the cases it flags iff its precision > a/(1+a), where a = how often our\n divided call hits the exact split (0.48 on OT2025's divided cases).\n\nRules were designed after OT2025 was known; n = 32 (9 unanimous). Treat OT2025\nnumbers as descriptive, the SCDB back-test as the out-of-sample evidence.", "findings": { "ruleTimeline": { "lessonsConsensusPrior": "2026-06-03T06:36:42-04:00", "synthesizerTrackRule": "2026-06-12T13:45:42-04:00", "framerTrackField": "2026-06-12T13:45:42-04:00" }, "unanimousCasesFrozenBeforeAnyRule": 9, "unanimousCasesWithPreFreezeFrame": 0, "forecastsFrozenAfterTrackRule": [ "tm-v-univ-maryland-medical", "cisco-v-doe", "blanche-v-lau", "exxon-v-cimex", "landor-v-louisiana", "wolford-v-lopez", "chatrie-v-united-states", "trump-v-slaughter", "little-v-hecox", "west-virginia-v-bpj", "nrsc-v-fec" ], "unanimousAmongPostRuleForecasts": 0, "postRuleProceduralTechnical": [ { "slug": "tm-v-univ-maryland-medical", "ownPUnanimous": 0.34, "predSplit": "8-1", "actualSplit": "5-4", "exemption": null }, { "slug": "cisco-v-doe", "ownPUnanimous": 0.04, "predSplit": "7-2", "actualSplit": "6-3", "exemption": "collapse-toward-unanimity-when-no-named-dissenter" }, { "slug": "blanche-v-lau", "ownPUnanimous": 0, "predSplit": "5-4", "actualSplit": "6-3", "exemption": "procedural-cases-trend-unanimous" } ], "unanimityByTrackUsed": { "hybrid": "1/4", "ideological-substantive": "1/11", "procedural-technical": "7/17" }, "proxyAgreesWithFrame": "7/10", "ownExpectedUnanimous": 1.73, "actualUnanimous": 9, "ownMeanPUnanimousInUnanimousCases": 0.076, "unanimityBrierOwn": 0.2507, "unanimityBrierTrackPrior": 0.1834, "trackPriorNote": "procedural-technical -> 0.40 (the rule's 35-45% midpoint), else 0.10", "winnerCorrectInUnanimousCases": "5/9", "exactSplitHitRateOnDividedCases": "11/23", "rule_b_threshold": 0.39, "rule_b_thresholdFit": { "cases": 189, "gainAtBest": 43.2, "flaggedAtBest": 166, "unanimousAmongFlagged": 83 } }, "audit": [ { "slug": "learning-resources-v-trump", "name": "Learning Resources v. Trump", "decisionDate": "2026-02-20", "frozenAt": "2026-02-09T10:06:49-05:00", "frameTrack": null, "frameCommitted": null, "frameBeforeFreeze": false, "rulesInForceAtFreeze": { "lessonsConsensusPrior": false, "synthesizerTrackRule": false, "framerTrackField": false }, "proxyTrack": "ideological-substantive", "trackUsed": "ideological-substantive", "constitutionalQP": false, "federalParty": true, "pUnanimousModel": 0.341, "predWinner": "petitioner", "actualWinner": "petitioner", "winCorrect": true, "predSplit": "6-3", "modalSplitForWinner": "6-3", "participating": 9, "ownPUnanimous": 0, "distribution": [ { "split": "6-3", "winner": "Learning Resources", "p": 0.45 }, { "split": "7-2", "winner": "Learning Resources", "p": 0.2 }, { "split": "5-4", "winner": "Learning Resources", "p": 0.15 }, { "split": "5-4", "winner": "Trump", "p": 0.1 }, { "split": "Other", "winner": "\u2014", "p": 0.1 } ], "exemptionRecorded": null, "actualSplit": "6-3", "actualUnanimous": false }, { "slug": "cox-v-sony", "name": "Cox v. Sony", "decisionDate": "2026-03-25", "frozenAt": "2026-02-24T07:35:22-05:00", "frameTrack": null, "frameCommitted": null, "frameBeforeFreeze": false, "rulesInForceAtFreeze": { "lessonsConsensusPrior": false, "synthesizerTrackRule": false, "framerTrackField": false }, "proxyTrack": "procedural-technical", "trackUsed": "procedural-technical", "constitutionalQP": false, "federalParty": false, "pUnanimousModel": 0.531, "predWinner": "petitioner", "actualWinner": "petitioner", "winCorrect": true, "predSplit": "5-4", "modalSplitForWinner": "5-4", "participating": 9, "ownPUnanimous": 0, "distribution": [ { "split": "6-3", "winner": "Cox", "p": 0.25 }, { "split": "5-4", "winner": "Cox", "p": 0.3 }, { "split": "5-4", "winner": "Sony", "p": 0.2 }, { "split": "6-3", "winner": "Sony", "p": 0.12 }, { "split": "Other", "winner": "\u2014", "p": 0.13 } ], "exemptionRecorded": null, "actualSplit": "9-0", "actualUnanimous": true }, { "slug": "chiles-v-salazar", "name": "Chiles v. Salazar", "decisionDate": "2026-03-31", "frozenAt": "2026-03-16T19:56:26-04:00", "frameTrack": null, "frameCommitted": null, "frameBeforeFreeze": false, "rulesInForceAtFreeze": { "lessonsConsensusPrior": false, "synthesizerTrackRule": false, "framerTrackField": false }, "proxyTrack": "ideological-substantive", "trackUsed": "ideological-substantive", "constitutionalQP": true, "federalParty": false, "pUnanimousModel": 0.406, "predWinner": "petitioner", "actualWinner": "petitioner", "winCorrect": true, "predSplit": "6-3", "modalSplitForWinner": "6-3", "participating": 9, "ownPUnanimous": 0.05, "distribution": [ { "split": "6-3", "winner": "Chiles", "p": 0.4 }, { "split": "7-2", "winner": "Chiles", "p": 0.2 }, { "split": "5-4", "winner": "Chiles", "p": 0.15 }, { "split": "9-0", "winner": "Chiles", "p": 0.05 }, { "split": "5-4", "winner": "Salazar", "p": 0.2 } ], "exemptionRecorded": null, "actualSplit": "8-1", "actualUnanimous": false }, { "slug": "chevron-v-plaquemines", "name": "Chevron USA v. Plaquemines Parish", "decisionDate": "2026-04-17", "frozenAt": "2026-03-16T20:14:53-04:00", "frameTrack": null, "frameCommitted": null, "frameBeforeFreeze": false, "rulesInForceAtFreeze": { "lessonsConsensusPrior": false, "synthesizerTrackRule": false, "framerTrackField": false }, "proxyTrack": "procedural-technical", "trackUsed": "procedural-technical", "constitutionalQP": false, "federalParty": false, "pUnanimousModel": 0.494, "predWinner": "respondent", "actualWinner": "petitioner", "winCorrect": false, "predSplit": "6-2", "modalSplitForWinner": "6-2", "participating": 8, "ownPUnanimous": 0, "distribution": [ { "split": "6-2", "winner": "Plaquemines Parish", "p": 0.3 }, { "split": "5-3", "winner": "Plaquemines Parish", "p": 0.2 }, { "split": "5-3", "winner": "Chevron", "p": 0.2 }, { "split": "4-4", "winner": "Affirm by equal division", "p": 0.15 }, { "split": "Other", "winner": "\u2014", "p": 0.15 } ], "exemptionRecorded": null, "actualSplit": "8-0", "actualUnanimous": true }, { "slug": "enbridge-v-nessel", "name": "Enbridge Energy v. Nessel", "decisionDate": "2026-04-22", "frozenAt": "2026-03-18T15:06:36-04:00", "frameTrack": null, "frameCommitted": null, "frameBeforeFreeze": false, "rulesInForceAtFreeze": { "lessonsConsensusPrior": false, "synthesizerTrackRule": false, "framerTrackField": false }, "proxyTrack": "procedural-technical", "trackUsed": "procedural-technical", "constitutionalQP": false, "federalParty": false, "pUnanimousModel": 0.494, "predWinner": "respondent", "actualWinner": "respondent", "winCorrect": true, "predSplit": "5-4", "modalSplitForWinner": "5-4", "participating": 9, "ownPUnanimous": 0, "distribution": [ { "split": "5-4", "winner": "Nessel", "p": 0.25 }, { "split": "6-3", "winner": "Nessel", "p": 0.2 }, { "split": "5-4", "winner": "Enbridge", "p": 0.2 }, { "split": "7-2", "winner": "Nessel", "p": 0.15 }, { "split": "Other", "winner": "\u2014", "p": 0.2 } ], "exemptionRecorded": null, "actualSplit": "9-0", "actualUnanimous": true }, { "slug": "first-choice-v-platkin", "name": "First Choice v. Platkin", "decisionDate": "2026-04-29", "frozenAt": "2026-03-16T07:47:20-04:00", "frameTrack": null, "frameCommitted": null, "frameBeforeFreeze": false, "rulesInForceAtFreeze": { "lessonsConsensusPrior": false, "synthesizerTrackRule": false, "framerTrackField": false }, "proxyTrack": "procedural-technical", "trackUsed": "procedural-technical", "constitutionalQP": true, "federalParty": false, "pUnanimousModel": 0.494, "predWinner": "petitioner", "actualWinner": "petitioner", "winCorrect": true, "predSplit": "7-2", "modalSplitForWinner": "7-2", "participating": 9, "ownPUnanimous": 0.08, "distribution": [ { "split": "7-2", "winner": "First Choice", "p": 0.45 }, { "split": "8-1", "winner": "First Choice", "p": 0.15 }, { "split": "6-3", "winner": "First Choice", "p": 0.2 }, { "split": "9-0", "winner": "First Choice", "p": 0.08 }, { "split": "5-4", "winner": "Platkin", "p": 0.12 } ], "exemptionRecorded": null, "actualSplit": "9-0", "actualUnanimous": true }, { "slug": "louisiana-v-callais", "name": "Louisiana v. Callais", "decisionDate": "2026-04-29", "frozenAt": "2026-02-24T07:39:22-05:00", "frameTrack": null, "frameCommitted": null, "frameBeforeFreeze": false, "rulesInForceAtFreeze": { "lessonsConsensusPrior": false, "synthesizerTrackRule": false, "framerTrackField": false }, "proxyTrack": "ideological-substantive", "trackUsed": "ideological-substantive", "constitutionalQP": true, "federalParty": false, "pUnanimousModel": 0.377, "predWinner": "respondent", "actualWinner": "respondent", "winCorrect": true, "predSplit": "9-0", "modalSplitForWinner": "6-3", "participating": 9, "ownPUnanimous": 0, "distribution": [ { "split": "6-3", "winner": "Callais", "p": 0.4 }, { "split": "5-4", "winner": "Callais", "p": 0.25 }, { "split": "5-4", "winner": "Louisiana", "p": 0.15 }, { "split": "6-3", "winner": "Louisiana", "p": 0.08 }, { "split": "Other", "winner": "\u2014", "p": 0.12 } ], "exemptionRecorded": null, "actualSplit": "6-3", "actualUnanimous": false }, { "slug": "montgomery-v-caribe-transport", "name": "Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II, LLC", "decisionDate": "2026-05-14", "frozenAt": "2026-03-19T11:31:53-04:00", "frameTrack": null, "frameCommitted": null, "frameBeforeFreeze": false, "rulesInForceAtFreeze": { "lessonsConsensusPrior": false, "synthesizerTrackRule": false, "framerTrackField": false }, "proxyTrack": "procedural-technical", "trackUsed": "procedural-technical", "constitutionalQP": false, "federalParty": false, "pUnanimousModel": 0.434, "predWinner": "petitioner", "actualWinner": "petitioner", "winCorrect": true, "predSplit": "6-3", "modalSplitForWinner": "6-3", "participating": 9, "ownPUnanimous": 0.1, "distribution": [ { "split": "6-3", "winner": "Montgomery", "p": 0.35 }, { "split": "7-2", "winner": "Montgomery", "p": 0.2 }, { "split": "9-0", "winner": "Montgomery", "p": 0.1 }, { "split": "5-4", "winner": "Caribe Transport", "p": 0.2 }, { "split": "Other", "winner": "\u2014", "p": 0.15 } ], "exemptionRecorded": null, "actualSplit": "9-0", "actualUnanimous": true }, { "slug": "havana-docks-v-royal-caribbean", "name": "Havana Docks v. Royal Caribbean", "decisionDate": "2026-05-21", "frozenAt": "2026-03-16T07:56:02-04:00", "frameTrack": null, "frameCommitted": null, "frameBeforeFreeze": false, "rulesInForceAtFreeze": { "lessonsConsensusPrior": false, "synthesizerTrackRule": false, "framerTrackField": false }, "proxyTrack": "procedural-technical", "trackUsed": "procedural-technical", "constitutionalQP": false, "federalParty": false, "pUnanimousModel": 0.531, "predWinner": "respondent", "actualWinner": "petitioner", "winCorrect": false, "predSplit": "7-2", "modalSplitForWinner": "7-2", "participating": 9, "ownPUnanimous": 0.15, "distribution": [ { "split": "7-2", "winner": "Royal Caribbean", "p": 0.3 }, { "split": "6-3", "winner": "Royal Caribbean", "p": 0.2 }, { "split": "9-0", "winner": "Royal Caribbean", "p": 0.15 }, { "split": "5-4", "winner": "Havana Docks", "p": 0.15 }, { "split": "Other", "winner": "\u2014", "p": 0.2 } ], "exemptionRecorded": null, "actualSplit": "8-1", "actualUnanimous": false }, { "slug": "flowers-foods-v-brock", "name": "Flowers Foods v. Brock", "decisionDate": "2026-05-28", "frozenAt": "2026-03-25T15:01:33-04:00", "frameTrack": null, "frameCommitted": null, "frameBeforeFreeze": false, "rulesInForceAtFreeze": { "lessonsConsensusPrior": false, "synthesizerTrackRule": false, "framerTrackField": false }, "proxyTrack": "procedural-technical", "trackUsed": "procedural-technical", "constitutionalQP": false, "federalParty": false, "pUnanimousModel": 0.434, "predWinner": "petitioner", "actualWinner": "respondent", "winCorrect": false, "predSplit": "6-3", "modalSplitForWinner": "6-3", "participating": 9, "ownPUnanimous": 0.15, "distribution": [ { "split": "6-3", "winner": "Flowers Foods", "p": 0.3 }, { "split": "7-2", "winner": "Flowers Foods", "p": 0.2 }, { "split": "9-0", "winner": "Brock", "p": 0.15 }, { "split": "5-4", "winner": "Brock", "p": 0.35 } ], "exemptionRecorded": null, "actualSplit": "9-0", "actualUnanimous": true }, { "slug": "fcc-v-att", "name": "Federal Communications Commission v. AT&T", "decisionDate": "2026-06-04", "frozenAt": "2026-04-24T09:57:04-04:00", "frameTrack": null, "frameCommitted": null, "frameBeforeFreeze": false, "rulesInForceAtFreeze": { "lessonsConsensusPrior": false, "synthesizerTrackRule": false, "framerTrackField": false }, "proxyTrack": "hybrid", "trackUsed": "hybrid", "constitutionalQP": true, "federalParty": true, "pUnanimousModel": 0.637, "predWinner": "respondent", "actualWinner": "petitioner", "winCorrect": false, "predSplit": "6-3", "modalSplitForWinner": "6-3", "participating": 9, "ownPUnanimous": 0, "distribution": [ { "split": "6-3", "winner": "AT&T", "p": 0.35 }, { "split": "7-2", "winner": "AT&T", "p": 0.2 }, { "split": "5-4", "winner": "AT&T", "p": 0.15 }, { "split": "6-3", "winner": "FCC", "p": 0.15 }, { "split": "Other", "winner": "\u2014", "p": 0.15 } ], "exemptionRecorded": null, "actualSplit": "8-1", "actualUnanimous": false }, { "slug": "keathley-v-buddy-ayers", "name": "Keathley v. Buddy Ayers Construction", "decisionDate": "2026-06-11", "frozenAt": "2026-04-11T09:51:08-04:00", "frameTrack": null, "frameCommitted": null, "frameBeforeFreeze": false, "rulesInForceAtFreeze": { "lessonsConsensusPrior": false, "synthesizerTrackRule": false, "framerTrackField": false }, "proxyTrack": "procedural-technical", "trackUsed": "procedural-technical", "constitutionalQP": false, "federalParty": false, "pUnanimousModel": 0.531, "predWinner": "petitioner", "actualWinner": "petitioner", "winCorrect": true, "predSplit": "7-2", "modalSplitForWinner": "7-2", "participating": 9, "ownPUnanimous": 0.1, "distribution": [ { "split": "7-2", "winner": "Keathley", "p": 0.3 }, { "split": "8-1", "winner": "Keathley", "p": 0.25 }, { "split": "6-3", "winner": "Keathley", "p": 0.2 }, { "split": "9-0", "winner": "Keathley", "p": 0.1 }, { "split": "Other", "winner": "Buddy Ayers", "p": 0.15 } ], "exemptionRecorded": null, "actualSplit": "9-0", "actualUnanimous": true }, { "slug": "tm-v-univ-maryland-medical", "name": "T. M. v. Univ. of Maryland Medical System", "decisionDate": "2026-06-18", "frozenAt": "2026-06-15T10:57:19-04:00", "frameTrack": "procedural-technical", "frameCommitted": "2026-06-15T10:04:25-04:00", "frameBeforeFreeze": true, "rulesInForceAtFreeze": { "lessonsConsensusPrior": true, "synthesizerTrackRule": true, "framerTrackField": true }, "proxyTrack": "procedural-technical", "trackUsed": "procedural-technical", "constitutionalQP": false, "federalParty": false, "pUnanimousModel": 0.283, "predWinner": "petitioner", "actualWinner": "respondent", "winCorrect": false, "predSplit": "8-1", "modalSplitForWinner": "8-1", "participating": 9, "ownPUnanimous": 0.34, "distribution": [ { "split": "8-1", "winner": "T.M.", "p": 0.45 }, { "split": "9-0", "winner": "T.M.", "p": 0.34 }, { "split": "7-2", "winner": "T.M.", "p": 0.11 }, { "split": "6-3", "winner": "T.M.", "p": 0.04 }, { "split": "Any margin", "winner": "University of Maryland Medical System", "p": 0.06 } ], "exemptionRecorded": null, "actualSplit": "5-4", "actualUnanimous": false }, { "slug": "hunter-v-united-states", "name": "Hunter v. United States", "decisionDate": "2026-06-18", "frozenAt": "2026-03-18T16:37:19-04:00", "frameTrack": null, "frameCommitted": null, "frameBeforeFreeze": false, "rulesInForceAtFreeze": { "lessonsConsensusPrior": false, "synthesizerTrackRule": false, "framerTrackField": false }, "proxyTrack": "procedural-technical", "trackUsed": "procedural-technical", "constitutionalQP": false, "federalParty": true, "pUnanimousModel": 0.396, "predWinner": "petitioner", "actualWinner": "petitioner", "winCorrect": true, "predSplit": "6-3", "modalSplitForWinner": "6-3", "participating": 9, "ownPUnanimous": 0, "distribution": [ { "split": "6-3", "winner": "Hunter", "p": 0.25 }, { "split": "7-2", "winner": "Hunter", "p": 0.15 }, { "split": "5-4", "winner": "Hunter", "p": 0.2 }, { "split": "5-4", "winner": "United States", "p": 0.15 }, { "split": "Other", "winner": "\u2014", "p": 0.25 } ], "exemptionRecorded": null, "actualSplit": "8-1", "actualUnanimous": false }, { "slug": "us-v-hemani", "name": "United States v. Hemani", "decisionDate": "2026-06-18", "frozenAt": "2026-03-19T09:39:02-04:00", "frameTrack": null, "frameCommitted": null, "frameBeforeFreeze": false, "rulesInForceAtFreeze": { "lessonsConsensusPrior": false, "synthesizerTrackRule": false, "framerTrackField": false }, "proxyTrack": "ideological-substantive", "trackUsed": "ideological-substantive", "constitutionalQP": true, "federalParty": true, "pUnanimousModel": 0.448, "predWinner": "petitioner", "actualWinner": "respondent", "winCorrect": false, "predSplit": "7-2", "modalSplitForWinner": "7-2", "participating": 9, "ownPUnanimous": 0, "distribution": [ { "split": "7-2", "winner": "United States", "p": 0.4 }, { "split": "6-3", "winner": "United States", "p": 0.25 }, { "split": "8-1", "winner": "United States", "p": 0.15 }, { "split": "5-4", "winner": "Hemani", "p": 0.2 } ], "exemptionRecorded": null, "actualSplit": "9-0", "actualUnanimous": true }, { "slug": "cisco-v-doe", "name": "Cisco v. Doe I", "decisionDate": "2026-06-23", "frozenAt": "2026-06-19T07:50:22-04:00", "frameTrack": "procedural-technical", "frameCommitted": "2026-06-14T07:18:56-04:00", "frameBeforeFreeze": true, "rulesInForceAtFreeze": { "lessonsConsensusPrior": true, "synthesizerTrackRule": true, "framerTrackField": true }, "proxyTrack": "procedural-technical", "trackUsed": "procedural-technical", "constitutionalQP": false, "federalParty": false, "pUnanimousModel": 0.494, "predWinner": "petitioner", "actualWinner": "petitioner", "winCorrect": true, "predSplit": "7-2", "modalSplitForWinner": "7-2", "participating": 9, "ownPUnanimous": 0.04, "distribution": [ { "split": "7-2", "winner": "Cisco Systems, Inc.", "p": 0.34 }, { "split": "6-3", "winner": "Cisco Systems, Inc.", "p": 0.33 }, { "split": "8-1", "winner": "Cisco Systems, Inc.", "p": 0.08 }, { "split": "9-0", "winner": "Cisco Systems, Inc.", "p": 0.04 }, { "split": "Any margin", "winner": "Doe I", "p": 0.21 } ], "exemptionRecorded": "collapse-toward-unanimity-when-no-named-dissenter", "actualSplit": "6-3", "actualUnanimous": false }, { "slug": "blanche-v-lau", "name": "Blanche v. 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"split": 14, "splitWithWinner": 11, "cases": 32, "flagged": 15, "unanimousRecall": "7/9", "unanimousPrecision": "7/15", "justices": "185/275", "justiceRate": 0.673, "justicesInUnanimousCases": "49/80", "winner": 22, "flaggedCases": [ "cox-v-sony", "chevron-v-plaquemines", "enbridge-v-nessel", "first-choice-v-platkin", "montgomery-v-caribe-transport", "havana-docks-v-royal-caribbean", "flowers-foods-v-brock", "keathley-v-buddy-ayers", "tm-v-univ-maryland-medical", "hunter-v-united-states", "exxon-v-cimex", "mullin-v-doe", "monsanto-v-durnell", "noem-v-al-otro-lado", "watson-v-rnc" ], "splitGained": [ "cox-v-sony", "chevron-v-plaquemines", "enbridge-v-nessel", "first-choice-v-platkin", "montgomery-v-caribe-transport", "flowers-foods-v-brock", "keathley-v-buddy-ayers" ], "splitLost": [ "exxon-v-cimex", "mullin-v-doe", "monsanto-v-durnell", "noem-v-al-otro-lado" ] }, "B_trackAndModel": { "rule": "(b) A_trackExempt AND unanimity-model P(9-0) >= 0.39 (cut-off chosen on OT2020-24 non-constitutional cases).", "split": 14, "splitWithWinner": 11, "cases": 32, "flagged": 14, "unanimousRecall": "7/9", "unanimousPrecision": "7/14", "justices": "186/275", "justiceRate": 0.676, "justicesInUnanimousCases": "49/80", "winner": 22, "flaggedCases": [ "cox-v-sony", "chevron-v-plaquemines", "enbridge-v-nessel", "first-choice-v-platkin", "montgomery-v-caribe-transport", "havana-docks-v-royal-caribbean", "flowers-foods-v-brock", "keathley-v-buddy-ayers", "hunter-v-united-states", "exxon-v-cimex", "mullin-v-doe", "monsanto-v-durnell", "noem-v-al-otro-lado", "watson-v-rnc" ], "splitGained": [ "cox-v-sony", "chevron-v-plaquemines", "enbridge-v-nessel", "first-choice-v-platkin", "montgomery-v-caribe-transport", "flowers-foods-v-brock", "keathley-v-buddy-ayers" ], "splitLost": [ "exxon-v-cimex", "mullin-v-doe", "monsanto-v-durnell", "noem-v-al-otro-lado" ] }, "C1_nonConstitutional": { "rule": "(c) SCDB-style: question presented is not constitutional -> N-0.", "split": 11, "splitWithWinner": 9, "cases": 32, "flagged": 19, "unanimousRecall": "6/9", "unanimousPrecision": "6/19", "justices": "178/275", "justiceRate": 0.647, "justicesInUnanimousCases": "47/80", "winner": 22, "flaggedCases": [ "learning-resources-v-trump", "cox-v-sony", "chevron-v-plaquemines", "enbridge-v-nessel", "montgomery-v-caribe-transport", "havana-docks-v-royal-caribbean", "flowers-foods-v-brock", "keathley-v-buddy-ayers", "tm-v-univ-maryland-medical", "hunter-v-united-states", "cisco-v-doe", "blanche-v-lau", "exxon-v-cimex", "landor-v-louisiana", "mullin-v-doe", "monsanto-v-durnell", "noem-v-al-otro-lado", "watson-v-rnc", "trump-v-cook" ], "splitGained": [ "cox-v-sony", "chevron-v-plaquemines", "enbridge-v-nessel", "montgomery-v-caribe-transport", "flowers-foods-v-brock", "keathley-v-buddy-ayers" ], "splitLost": [ "learning-resources-v-trump", "exxon-v-cimex", "landor-v-louisiana", "mullin-v-doe", "monsanto-v-durnell", "noem-v-al-otro-lado" ] }, "C2_nonConstNoFedParty": { "rule": "(c) non-constitutional AND the federal government is not a party.", "split": 14, "splitWithWinner": 12, "cases": 32, "flagged": 13, "unanimousRecall": "6/9", "unanimousPrecision": "6/13", "justices": "186/275", "justiceRate": 0.676, "justicesInUnanimousCases": "47/80", "winner": 22, "flaggedCases": [ "cox-v-sony", "chevron-v-plaquemines", "enbridge-v-nessel", "montgomery-v-caribe-transport", "havana-docks-v-royal-caribbean", "flowers-foods-v-brock", "keathley-v-buddy-ayers", "tm-v-univ-maryland-medical", "cisco-v-doe", "exxon-v-cimex", "landor-v-louisiana", "monsanto-v-durnell", "watson-v-rnc" ], "splitGained": [ "cox-v-sony", "chevron-v-plaquemines", "enbridge-v-nessel", "montgomery-v-caribe-transport", "flowers-foods-v-brock", "keathley-v-buddy-ayers" ], "splitLost": [ "exxon-v-cimex", "landor-v-louisiana", "monsanto-v-durnell" ] }, "C3_trackNoFedParty": { "rule": "A_trackExempt AND the federal government is not a party.", "split": 16, "splitWithWinner": 13, "cases": 32, "flagged": 12, "unanimousRecall": "7/9", "unanimousPrecision": "7/12", "justices": "191/275", "justiceRate": 0.695, "justicesInUnanimousCases": "49/80", "winner": 22, "flaggedCases": [ "cox-v-sony", "chevron-v-plaquemines", "enbridge-v-nessel", "first-choice-v-platkin", "montgomery-v-caribe-transport", "havana-docks-v-royal-caribbean", "flowers-foods-v-brock", "keathley-v-buddy-ayers", "tm-v-univ-maryland-medical", "exxon-v-cimex", "monsanto-v-durnell", "watson-v-rnc" ], "splitGained": [ "cox-v-sony", "chevron-v-plaquemines", "enbridge-v-nessel", "first-choice-v-platkin", "montgomery-v-caribe-transport", "flowers-foods-v-brock", "keathley-v-buddy-ayers" ], "splitLost": [ "exxon-v-cimex", "monsanto-v-durnell" ] }, "D_trackExemptModal": { "rule": "A_trackExempt plus R0c headline hygiene on every other case.", "split": 16, "splitWithWinner": 12, "cases": 32, "flagged": 15, "unanimousRecall": "7/9", "unanimousPrecision": "7/15", "justices": "185/275", "justiceRate": 0.673, "justicesInUnanimousCases": "49/80", "winner": 22, "flaggedCases": [ "cox-v-sony", "chevron-v-plaquemines", "enbridge-v-nessel", "first-choice-v-platkin", "montgomery-v-caribe-transport", "havana-docks-v-royal-caribbean", "flowers-foods-v-brock", "keathley-v-buddy-ayers", "tm-v-univ-maryland-medical", "hunter-v-united-states", "exxon-v-cimex", "mullin-v-doe", "monsanto-v-durnell", "noem-v-al-otro-lado", "watson-v-rnc" ], "splitGained": [ "cox-v-sony", "chevron-v-plaquemines", "enbridge-v-nessel", "first-choice-v-platkin", "louisiana-v-callais", "montgomery-v-caribe-transport", "flowers-foods-v-brock", "keathley-v-buddy-ayers", "pung-v-isabella-county" ], "splitLost": [ "exxon-v-cimex", "mullin-v-doe", "monsanto-v-durnell", "noem-v-al-otro-lado" ] }, "D_recommended": { "rule": "C3 plus R0c headline hygiene on every other case.", "split": 18, "splitWithWinner": 14, "cases": 32, "flagged": 12, "unanimousRecall": "7/9", "unanimousPrecision": "7/12", "justices": "191/275", "justiceRate": 0.695, "justicesInUnanimousCases": "49/80", "winner": 22, "flaggedCases": [ "cox-v-sony", "chevron-v-plaquemines", "enbridge-v-nessel", "first-choice-v-platkin", "montgomery-v-caribe-transport", "havana-docks-v-royal-caribbean", "flowers-foods-v-brock", "keathley-v-buddy-ayers", "tm-v-univ-maryland-medical", "exxon-v-cimex", "monsanto-v-durnell", "watson-v-rnc" ], "splitGained": [ "cox-v-sony", "chevron-v-plaquemines", "enbridge-v-nessel", "first-choice-v-platkin", "louisiana-v-callais", "montgomery-v-caribe-transport", "flowers-foods-v-brock", "keathley-v-buddy-ayers", "pung-v-isabella-county" ], "splitLost": [ "exxon-v-cimex", "monsanto-v-durnell" ] }, "Z_alwaysUnanimous": { "rule": "Sanity baseline: N-0 for every case.", "split": 9, "splitWithWinner": 5, "cases": 32, "flagged": 32, "unanimousRecall": "9/9", "unanimousPrecision": "9/32", "justices": "164/284", "justiceRate": 0.577, "justicesInUnanimousCases": "45/80", "winner": 22, "flaggedCases": [ "learning-resources-v-trump", "cox-v-sony", "chiles-v-salazar", "chevron-v-plaquemines", "enbridge-v-nessel", "first-choice-v-platkin", "louisiana-v-callais", "montgomery-v-caribe-transport", "havana-docks-v-royal-caribbean", "flowers-foods-v-brock", "fcc-v-att", "keathley-v-buddy-ayers", "tm-v-univ-maryland-medical", "hunter-v-united-states", "us-v-hemani", "cisco-v-doe", "blanche-v-lau", "pung-v-isabella-county", "exxon-v-cimex", "landor-v-louisiana", "mullin-v-doe", "monsanto-v-durnell", "noem-v-al-otro-lado", "wolford-v-lopez", "chatrie-v-united-states", "watson-v-rnc", "trump-v-cook", "trump-v-slaughter", "trump-v-barbara", "little-v-hecox", "west-virginia-v-bpj", "nrsc-v-fec" ], "splitGained": [ "cox-v-sony", "chevron-v-plaquemines", "enbridge-v-nessel", "first-choice-v-platkin", "montgomery-v-caribe-transport", "flowers-foods-v-brock", "keathley-v-buddy-ayers", "us-v-hemani", "pung-v-isabella-county" ], "splitLost": [ "learning-resources-v-trump", "exxon-v-cimex", "landor-v-louisiana", "mullin-v-doe", "monsanto-v-durnell", "noem-v-al-otro-lado", "wolford-v-lopez", "trump-v-slaughter", "little-v-hecox", "west-virginia-v-bpj", "nrsc-v-fec" ] } }, "scdbBacktest": { "testTerms": "OT2015-OT2024", "cases": 579, "unanimous": 241, "breakEvenPrecision": { "0.35": 0.259, "0.48": 0.324, "0.6": 0.375 }, "note": "Rule beats keeping our divided call on its flagged cases iff precision > a/(1+a); a = our exact-split hit rate on divided cases. H5 learns (issue area x constitutional x federal party) cells on all terms before the test term (OT2000 onward), flagging cells whose unanimity rate beats a/(1+a) at a=0.48. Federal party = U.S., Attorney General, federal agency or official.", "rules": { "H1_nonConstitutional": { "flagged": 391, "unanimousFlagged": 188, "recall": 0.78, "precision": 0.481, "termsBeatingBreakEven048": 9, "expectedExtraExactSplits": { "0.35": 117.0, "0.48": 90.6, "0.6": 66.2 }, "perTerm": { "2015": { "flagged": 39, "unanimous": 21, "precision": 0.538 }, "2016": { "flagged": 41, "unanimous": 26, "precision": 0.634 }, "2017": { "flagged": 40, "unanimous": 16, "precision": 0.4 }, "2018": { "flagged": 46, "unanimous": 23, "precision": 0.5 }, "2019": { "flagged": 36, "unanimous": 16, "precision": 0.444 }, "2020": { "flagged": 36, "unanimous": 20, "precision": 0.556 }, "2021": { "flagged": 38, "unanimous": 11, "precision": 0.289 }, "2022": { "flagged": 39, "unanimous": 21, "precision": 0.538 }, "2023": { "flagged": 31, "unanimous": 13, "precision": 0.419 }, "2024": { "flagged": 45, "unanimous": 21, "precision": 0.467 } } }, "H2_nonConstNoFedParty": { "flagged": 215, "unanimousFlagged": 112, "recall": 0.465, "precision": 0.521, "termsBeatingBreakEven048": 9, "expectedExtraExactSplits": { "0.35": 76.0, "0.48": 62.6, "0.6": 50.2 }, "perTerm": { "2015": { "flagged": 19, "unanimous": 10, "precision": 0.526 }, "2016": { "flagged": 28, "unanimous": 19, "precision": 0.679 }, "2017": { "flagged": 26, "unanimous": 12, "precision": 0.462 }, "2018": { "flagged": 28, "unanimous": 14, "precision": 0.5 }, "2019": { "flagged": 21, "unanimous": 10, "precision": 0.476 }, "2020": { "flagged": 17, "unanimous": 9, "precision": 0.529 }, "2021": { "flagged": 21, "unanimous": 6, "precision": 0.286 }, "2022": { "flagged": 23, "unanimous": 10, "precision": 0.435 }, "2023": { "flagged": 11, "unanimous": 9, "precision": 0.818 }, "2024": { "flagged": 21, "unanimous": 13, "precision": 0.619 } } }, "H3_nonConstNoLowerCourtDissent": { "flagged": 292, "unanimousFlagged": 147, "recall": 0.61, "precision": 0.503, "termsBeatingBreakEven048": 10, "expectedExtraExactSplits": { "0.35": 96.2, "0.48": 77.4, "0.6": 60.0 }, "perTerm": { "2015": { "flagged": 28, "unanimous": 15, "precision": 0.536 }, "2016": { "flagged": 27, "unanimous": 18, "precision": 0.667 }, "2017": { "flagged": 28, "unanimous": 12, "precision": 0.429 }, "2018": { "flagged": 39, "unanimous": 22, "precision": 0.564 }, "2019": { "flagged": 30, "unanimous": 14, "precision": 0.467 }, "2020": { "flagged": 25, "unanimous": 13, "precision": 0.52 }, "2021": { "flagged": 23, "unanimous": 8, "precision": 0.348 }, "2022": { "flagged": 30, "unanimous": 15, "precision": 0.5 }, "2023": { "flagged": 26, "unanimous": 12, "precision": 0.462 }, "2024": { "flagged": 36, "unanimous": 18, "precision": 0.5 } } }, "H4_nonConstNoFedNoLcDissent": { "flagged": 158, "unanimousFlagged": 91, "recall": 0.378, "precision": 0.576, "termsBeatingBreakEven048": 10, "expectedExtraExactSplits": { "0.35": 67.5, "0.48": 58.8, "0.6": 50.8 }, "perTerm": { "2015": { "flagged": 13, "unanimous": 7, "precision": 0.538 }, "2016": { "flagged": 16, "unanimous": 12, "precision": 0.75 }, "2017": { "flagged": 18, "unanimous": 9, "precision": 0.5 }, "2018": { "flagged": 24, "unanimous": 14, "precision": 0.583 }, "2019": { "flagged": 18, "unanimous": 9, "precision": 0.5 }, "2020": { "flagged": 12, "unanimous": 6, "precision": 0.5 }, "2021": { "flagged": 11, "unanimous": 5, "precision": 0.455 }, "2022": { "flagged": 19, "unanimous": 9, "precision": 0.474 }, "2023": { "flagged": 9, "unanimous": 8, "precision": 0.889 }, "2024": { "flagged": 18, "unanimous": 12, "precision": 0.667 } } }, "H5_cellsLearnedOnPriorTerms": { "flagged": 395, "unanimousFlagged": 185, "recall": 0.768, "precision": 0.468, "termsBeatingBreakEven048": 9, "expectedExtraExactSplits": { "0.35": 111.5, "0.48": 84.2, "0.6": 59.0 }, "perTerm": { "2015": { "flagged": 45, "unanimous": 22, "precision": 0.489 }, "2016": { "flagged": 48, "unanimous": 30, "precision": 0.625 }, "2017": { "flagged": 41, "unanimous": 16, "precision": 0.39 }, "2018": { "flagged": 46, "unanimous": 20, "precision": 0.435 }, "2019": { "flagged": 34, "unanimous": 15, "precision": 0.441 }, "2020": { "flagged": 29, "unanimous": 17, "precision": 0.586 }, "2021": { "flagged": 35, "unanimous": 11, "precision": 0.314 }, "2022": { "flagged": 35, "unanimous": 19, "precision": 0.543 }, "2023": { "flagged": 33, "unanimous": 13, "precision": 0.394 }, "2024": { "flagged": 49, "unanimous": 22, "precision": 0.449 } } } }, "baseRates": [ { "cell": "constitutional / federal party", "cases": 50, "unanimous": 0.3 }, { "cell": "constitutional / no federal party", "cases": 138, "unanimous": 0.275 }, { "cell": "non-constitutional / federal party", "cases": 176, "unanimous": 0.432 }, { "cell": "non-constitutional / no federal party", "cases": 215, "unanimous": 0.521 } ] } }