{
 "generated": "2026-10-03",
 "rules": "- Only forecasts committed before the decision count (\"pre-decision\").\n- Per-Justice votes: the frozen justice-votes.json, else prediction.per_justice.\n  A Justice with no published vote is \"not predicted\": shown, never counted.\n  Justices who concurred in part and dissented in part (\"split\") or took no part\n  are excluded; a concurrence in the judgment counts for the winning side.\n- Forecasts are scored as published. Internal inconsistencies (per-Justice votes\n  that don't add up to the headline split; a headline split that isn't the\n  forecast's own most likely scenario) are flagged, not repaired.",
 "selection": "Forecast cases were chosen as high-profile cases during OT2025 — 37 of the term's 58 argued cases — not a random sample, so these rates may not generalize to the full docket.",
 "headline": {
  "cases": 32,
  "winner": {
   "correct": 22,
   "rate": 0.6875,
   "ci95": [
    0.5312,
    0.8438
   ]
  },
  "split": {
   "correct": 11,
   "rate": 0.3438,
   "ci95": [
    0.1875,
    0.5
   ]
  },
  "justices": {
   "correct": 187,
   "scored": 275,
   "rate": 0.68,
   "ci95": [
    0.5766,
    0.7789
   ],
   "notPredicted": 9
  },
  "brier": {
   "value": 0.2167,
   "ci95": [
    0.1492,
    0.293
   ]
  },
  "logLoss": 0.6302
 },
 "baselines": {
  "alwaysPetitioner": {
   "correct": 23,
   "rate": 0.7188,
   "liftCi95": [
    -0.2188,
    0.1562
   ]
  },
  "historicalRate": {
   "pPetitioner": 0.6768,
   "basedOn": "922 orally argued decisions, OT2010–OT2024 (Supreme Court Database)",
   "brier": 0.2039,
   "brierGainCi95": [
    -0.0853,
    0.0588
   ]
  },
  "katzBommaritoBlackman": {
   "accuracy": 0.702,
   "source": "Katz, Bommarito & Blackman, 'A general approach for predicting the behavior of the Supreme Court of the United States', PLOS ONE 12(4): e0174698 (2017) — case outcomes 1816–2015; not the same cases"
  }
 },
 "calibration": [
  {
   "band": "50–60%",
   "cases": 3,
   "meanConfidence": 0.56,
   "hitRate": 1.0,
   "correct": 3
  },
  {
   "band": "60–70%",
   "cases": 12,
   "meanConfidence": 0.632,
   "hitRate": 0.583,
   "correct": 7
  },
  {
   "band": "70–80%",
   "cases": 10,
   "meanConfidence": 0.731,
   "hitRate": 0.6,
   "correct": 6
  },
  {
   "band": "80–90%",
   "cases": 4,
   "meanConfidence": 0.84,
   "hitRate": 1.0,
   "correct": 4
  },
  {
   "band": "90–100%",
   "cases": 3,
   "meanConfidence": 0.91,
   "hitRate": 0.667,
   "correct": 2
  }
 ],
 "calibrated": {
  "rule": "p_cal = expit( logit(b) + k · (logit(p_raw) − logit(b)) ), clipped to [0.01, 0.99]",
  "b": 0.6768,
  "k": 0.4,
  "cases": 32,
  "published": 0,
  "appliedAfter": 32,
  "winner": {
   "correct": 24,
   "rate": 0.75
  },
  "flipped": 8,
  "brier": {
   "value": 0.1968,
   "ci95": [
    0.1483,
    0.2528
   ]
  },
  "logLoss": 0.5832,
  "calibration": [
   {
    "band": "50–60%",
    "cases": 8,
    "meanConfidence": 0.548,
    "hitRate": 0.625,
    "correct": 5
   },
   {
    "band": "60–70%",
    "cases": 15,
    "meanConfidence": 0.662,
    "hitRate": 0.733,
    "correct": 11
   },
   {
    "band": "70–80%",
    "cases": 8,
    "meanConfidence": 0.744,
    "hitRate": 1.0,
    "correct": 8
   },
   {
    "band": "80–90%",
    "cases": 1,
    "meanConfidence": 0.805,
    "hitRate": 0.0,
    "correct": 0
   }
  ],
  "looHonest": {
   "brier": 0.213,
   "logLoss": 0.6198,
   "winnerCorrect": 21
  },
  "note": "For forecasts made before the rule existed (all of OT2025) the calibrated probability is the current rule applied after the fact. The rule was fitted on these same cases, so those figures flatter it; the honest figures refit the rule without each case in turn. From OT2026 each forecast publishes its own calibrated probability."
 },
 "byArea": [
  {
   "group": "Civil rights",
   "cases": 9,
   "winner": 0.889,
   "split": 0.444,
   "justices": 0.901
  },
  {
   "group": "Judicial power",
   "cases": 6,
   "winner": 0.667,
   "split": 0.167,
   "justices": 0.588
  },
  {
   "group": "Economic activity",
   "cases": 4,
   "winner": 0.5,
   "split": 0.0,
   "justices": 0.5
  },
  {
   "group": "Criminal procedure",
   "cases": 4,
   "winner": 0.75,
   "split": 0.25,
   "justices": 0.75
  },
  {
   "group": "Miscellaneous",
   "cases": 3,
   "winner": 1.0,
   "split": 0.667,
   "justices": 0.741
  },
  {
   "group": "Unions",
   "cases": 2,
   "winner": 0.5,
   "split": 0.0,
   "justices": 0.556
  },
  {
   "group": "First Amendment",
   "cases": 2,
   "winner": 0.5,
   "split": 1.0,
   "justices": 0.778
  },
  {
   "group": "Due process",
   "cases": 1,
   "winner": 0.0,
   "split": 0.0,
   "justices": 0.111
  },
  {
   "group": "Federalism",
   "cases": 1,
   "winner": 0.0,
   "split": 1.0,
   "justices": 0.333
  }
 ],
 "unanimity": {
  "predicted": 1,
  "actual": 9,
  "byOutcome": [
   {
    "group": "Divided",
    "cases": 23,
    "winner": 0.739,
    "split": 0.478,
    "justices": 0.754
   },
   {
    "group": "Unanimous",
    "cases": 9,
    "winner": 0.556,
    "split": 0.0,
    "justices": 0.5
   }
  ]
 },
 "ablation": {
  "sameVotes": 106,
  "sameCases": 11,
  "methods": {
   "brief_based": {
    "label": "Spaeth / brief-based",
    "justiceCorrect": 76,
    "justiceRate": 0.717,
    "winnerCorrect": 7,
    "winnerRate": 0.636
   },
   "sentiment": {
    "label": "Sentiment of questions",
    "justiceCorrect": 80,
    "justiceRate": 0.755,
    "winnerCorrect": 9,
    "winnerRate": 0.818
   },
   "elp": {
    "label": "Question counts (ELP)",
    "justiceCorrect": 67,
    "justiceRate": 0.632,
    "winnerCorrect": 7,
    "winnerRate": 0.636
   },
   "combined": {
    "label": "Combined forecast",
    "justiceCorrect": 75,
    "justiceRate": 0.708,
    "winnerCorrect": 9,
    "winnerRate": 0.818
   }
  }
 },
 "postDecision": [
  {
   "slug": "galette-v-nj-transit",
   "name": "Galette v. NJ Transit Corp.",
   "status": "placeholder",
   "firstCommitted": "2026-02-10T11:46:35-05:00",
   "decisionDate": "2026-03-04",
   "reason": "The forecast file saved before the decision was a placeholder (it named 'Callais', a party in another case); the real forecast was written after the decision."
  },
  {
   "slug": "urias-orellana-v-bondi",
   "name": "Urias-Orellana v. Bondi",
   "status": "placeholder",
   "firstCommitted": "2026-02-10T11:46:35-05:00",
   "decisionDate": "2026-03-04",
   "reason": "The forecast file saved before the decision was a placeholder (it named 'Callais', a party in another case); the real forecast was written after the decision."
  },
  {
   "slug": "hikma-v-amarin",
   "name": "Hikma v. Amarin",
   "status": "post-decision",
   "firstCommitted": "2026-06-14T13:02:22-04:00",
   "decisionDate": "2026-06-04",
   "reason": "First saved after the decision was announced."
  },
  {
   "slug": "sripetch-v-sec",
   "name": "Sripetch v. SEC",
   "status": "post-decision",
   "firstCommitted": "2026-06-13T11:59:02-04:00",
   "decisionDate": "2026-06-04",
   "reason": "First saved after the decision was announced."
  },
  {
   "slug": "fs-credit-opportunities-v-saba-capital-master",
   "name": "FS Credit Opportunities v. Saba Capital",
   "status": "post-decision",
   "firstCommitted": "2026-06-12T16:38:30-04:00",
   "decisionDate": "2026-06-11",
   "reason": "First saved after the decision was announced."
  }
 ],
 "flagged": [
  "chevron-v-plaquemines",
  "louisiana-v-callais",
  "montgomery-v-caribe-transport",
  "havana-docks-v-royal-caribbean",
  "flowers-foods-v-brock",
  "fcc-v-att",
  "keathley-v-buddy-ayers",
  "hunter-v-united-states",
  "us-v-hemani",
  "pung-v-isabella-county",
  "landor-v-louisiana",
  "monsanto-v-durnell",
  "chatrie-v-united-states",
  "trump-v-barbara"
 ],
 "cases": [
  {
   "slug": "learning-resources-v-trump",
   "name": "Learning Resources v. Trump",
   "decisionDate": "2026-02-20",
   "frozenSha": "b1529778cf91",
   "frozenAt": "2026-02-09T10:06:49-05:00",
   "firstCommitted": "2026-02-08T12:12:11-05:00",
   "postDecisionEdits": 6,
   "predWinner": "petitioner",
   "predWinnerName": "Learning Resources",
   "actualWinner": "petitioner",
   "actualWinnerName": "Learning Resources",
   "probability": 0.65,
   "pPetitioner": 0.65,
   "pPetitionerCalibrated": 0.6662,
   "calibratedSource": "applied after the fact",
   "winCorrect": true,
   "predSplit": "6-3",
   "actualSplit": "6-3",
   "splitCorrect": true,
   "unanimous": false,
   "predUnanimous": false,
   "issueArea": "Miscellaneous",
   "justices": [
    {
     "name": "Roberts",
     "predicted": "petitioner",
     "actual": "petitioner",
     "correct": true
    },
    {
     "name": "Thomas",
     "predicted": "petitioner",
     "actual": "respondent",
     "correct": false
    },
    {
     "name": "Alito",
     "predicted": "petitioner",
     "actual": "respondent",
     "correct": false
    },
    {
     "name": "Sotomayor",
     "predicted": "respondent",
     "actual": "petitioner",
     "correct": false
    },
    {
     "name": "Kagan",
     "predicted": "respondent",
     "actual": "petitioner",
     "correct": false
    },
    {
     "name": "Gorsuch",
     "predicted": "petitioner",
     "actual": "petitioner",
     "correct": true
    },
    {
     "name": "Kavanaugh",
     "predicted": "petitioner",
     "actual": "respondent",
     "correct": false
    },
    {
     "name": "Barrett",
     "predicted": "petitioner",
     "actual": "petitioner",
     "correct": true
    },
    {
     "name": "Jackson",
     "predicted": "respondent",
     "actual": "petitioner",
     "correct": false
    }
   ],
   "voteSource": "justice-votes",
   "flags": [],
   "dataNotes": [
    {
     "date": "2026-10-06",
     "title": "petitioner and respondent may be swapped in some of this case's argument data"
    }
   ],
   "methods": {
    "brief_based": {
     "Roberts": null,
     "Thomas": "petitioner",
     "Alito": "petitioner",
     "Sotomayor": "respondent",
     "Kagan": "respondent",
     "Gorsuch": "petitioner",
     "Kavanaugh": null,
     "Barrett": null,
     "Jackson": "respondent"
    },
    "sentiment": {
     "Roberts": "petitioner",
     "Thomas": "respondent",
     "Alito": "petitioner",
     "Sotomayor": "petitioner",
     "Kagan": "petitioner",
     "Gorsuch": "petitioner",
     "Kavanaugh": "respondent",
     "Barrett": "petitioner",
     "Jackson": "petitioner"
    },
    "elp": {
     "Roberts": "respondent",
     "Thomas": "petitioner",
     "Alito": "respondent",
     "Sotomayor": "petitioner",
     "Kagan": "respondent",
     "Gorsuch": "petitioner",
     "Kavanaugh": "respondent",
     "Barrett": "respondent",
     "Jackson": "petitioner"
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "cox-v-sony",
   "name": "Cox v. Sony",
   "decisionDate": "2026-03-25",
   "frozenSha": "d5e07f9050c5",
   "frozenAt": "2026-02-24T07:35:22-05:00",
   "firstCommitted": "2026-02-24T07:35:22-05:00",
   "postDecisionEdits": 0,
   "predWinner": "petitioner",
   "predWinnerName": "Cox",
   "actualWinner": "petitioner",
   "actualWinnerName": "Cox",
   "probability": 0.58,
   "pPetitioner": 0.58,
   "pPetitionerCalibrated": 0.6394,
   "calibratedSource": "applied after the fact",
   "winCorrect": true,
   "predSplit": "5-4",
   "actualSplit": "9-0",
   "splitCorrect": false,
   "unanimous": true,
   "predUnanimous": false,
   "issueArea": "Economic activity",
   "justices": [
    {
     "name": "Roberts",
     "predicted": "respondent",
     "actual": "petitioner",
     "correct": false
    },
    {
     "name": "Thomas",
     "predicted": "petitioner",
     "actual": "petitioner",
     "correct": true
    },
    {
     "name": "Alito",
     "predicted": "petitioner",
     "actual": "petitioner",
     "correct": true
    },
    {
     "name": "Sotomayor",
     "predicted": "respondent",
     "actual": "petitioner",
     "correct": false
    },
    {
     "name": "Kagan",
     "predicted": "respondent",
     "actual": "petitioner",
     "correct": false
    },
    {
     "name": "Gorsuch",
     "predicted": "petitioner",
     "actual": "petitioner",
     "correct": true
    },
    {
     "name": "Kavanaugh",
     "predicted": "petitioner",
     "actual": "petitioner",
     "correct": true
    },
    {
     "name": "Barrett",
     "predicted": "petitioner",
     "actual": "petitioner",
     "correct": true
    },
    {
     "name": "Jackson",
     "predicted": "respondent",
     "actual": "petitioner",
     "correct": false
    }
   ],
   "voteSource": "justice-votes",
   "flags": [],
   "dataNotes": [],
   "methods": {
    "brief_based": {
     "Thomas": "petitioner",
     "Alito": "petitioner",
     "Gorsuch": "petitioner",
     "Kavanaugh": "petitioner",
     "Barrett": "petitioner",
     "Roberts": "respondent",
     "Kagan": "respondent",
     "Sotomayor": "respondent",
     "Jackson": "respondent"
    },
    "sentiment": {
     "Thomas": "petitioner",
     "Alito": "petitioner",
     "Gorsuch": "petitioner",
     "Kavanaugh": "petitioner",
     "Barrett": "petitioner",
     "Roberts": "respondent",
     "Kagan": "respondent",
     "Sotomayor": "respondent",
     "Jackson": "respondent"
    },
    "elp": {
     "Thomas": "respondent",
     "Alito": null,
     "Gorsuch": "respondent",
     "Kavanaugh": "respondent",
     "Barrett": "respondent",
     "Roberts": "respondent",
     "Kagan": "respondent",
     "Sotomayor": "respondent",
     "Jackson": "respondent"
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "chiles-v-salazar",
   "name": "Chiles v. Salazar",
   "decisionDate": "2026-03-31",
   "frozenSha": "f26a7485ee53",
   "frozenAt": "2026-03-16T19:56:26-04:00",
   "firstCommitted": "2026-03-16T19:56:26-04:00",
   "postDecisionEdits": 0,
   "predWinner": "petitioner",
   "predWinnerName": "Chiles",
   "actualWinner": "petitioner",
   "actualWinnerName": "Chiles",
   "probability": 0.72,
   "pPetitioner": 0.72,
   "pPetitionerCalibrated": 0.6945,
   "calibratedSource": "applied after the fact",
   "winCorrect": true,
   "predSplit": "6-3",
   "actualSplit": "8-1",
   "splitCorrect": false,
   "unanimous": false,
   "predUnanimous": false,
   "issueArea": "Civil rights",
   "justices": [
    {
     "name": "Roberts",
     "predicted": "petitioner",
     "actual": "petitioner",
     "correct": true
    },
    {
     "name": "Thomas",
     "predicted": "petitioner",
     "actual": "petitioner",
     "correct": true
    },
    {
     "name": "Alito",
     "predicted": "petitioner",
     "actual": "petitioner",
     "correct": true
    },
    {
     "name": "Sotomayor",
     "predicted": "respondent",
     "actual": "petitioner",
     "correct": false
    },
    {
     "name": "Kagan",
     "predicted": "respondent",
     "actual": "petitioner",
     "correct": false
    },
    {
     "name": "Gorsuch",
     "predicted": "petitioner",
     "actual": "petitioner",
     "correct": true
    },
    {
     "name": "Kavanaugh",
     "predicted": "petitioner",
     "actual": "petitioner",
     "correct": true
    },
    {
     "name": "Barrett",
     "predicted": "petitioner",
     "actual": "petitioner",
     "correct": true
    },
    {
     "name": "Jackson",
     "predicted": "respondent",
     "actual": "respondent",
     "correct": true
    }
   ],
   "voteSource": "justice-votes",
   "flags": [],
   "dataNotes": [],
   "methods": {
    "brief_based": {
     "Roberts": "petitioner",
     "Thomas": "petitioner",
     "Alito": "petitioner",
     "Sotomayor": "respondent",
     "Kagan": "respondent",
     "Gorsuch": "petitioner",
     "Kavanaugh": "petitioner",
     "Barrett": "petitioner",
     "Jackson": "respondent"
    },
    "sentiment": {
     "Roberts": "petitioner",
     "Thomas": null,
     "Alito": "petitioner",
     "Sotomayor": "respondent",
     "Kagan": "respondent",
     "Gorsuch": "petitioner",
     "Kavanaugh": null,
     "Barrett": "petitioner",
     "Jackson": "respondent"
    },
    "elp": {
     "Roberts": "respondent",
     "Thomas": "petitioner",
     "Alito": "petitioner",
     "Sotomayor": "respondent",
     "Kagan": "respondent",
     "Gorsuch": "petitioner",
     "Kavanaugh": null,
     "Barrett": "petitioner",
     "Jackson": "respondent"
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "chevron-v-plaquemines",
   "name": "Chevron USA v. Plaquemines Parish",
   "decisionDate": "2026-04-17",
   "frozenSha": "1efbfa083b52",
   "frozenAt": "2026-03-16T20:14:53-04:00",
   "firstCommitted": "2026-03-16T20:14:53-04:00",
   "postDecisionEdits": 0,
   "predWinner": "respondent",
   "predWinnerName": "Plaquemines Parish",
   "actualWinner": "petitioner",
   "actualWinnerName": "Chevron",
   "probability": 0.6,
   "pPetitioner": 0.4,
   "pPetitionerCalibrated": 0.5699,
   "calibratedSource": "applied after the fact",
   "winCorrect": false,
   "predSplit": "6-2",
   "actualSplit": "8-0",
   "splitCorrect": false,
   "unanimous": true,
   "predUnanimous": false,
   "issueArea": "Judicial power",
   "justices": [
    {
     "name": "Roberts",
     "predicted": "respondent",
     "actual": "petitioner",
     "correct": false
    },
    {
     "name": "Thomas",
     "predicted": "respondent",
     "actual": "petitioner",
     "correct": false
    },
    {
     "name": "Sotomayor",
     "predicted": "respondent",
     "actual": "petitioner",
     "correct": false
    },
    {
     "name": "Kagan",
     "predicted": "respondent",
     "actual": "petitioner",
     "correct": false
    },
    {
     "name": "Gorsuch",
     "predicted": "respondent",
     "actual": "petitioner",
     "correct": false
    },
    {
     "name": "Kavanaugh",
     "predicted": "respondent",
     "actual": "petitioner",
     "correct": false
    },
    {
     "name": "Barrett",
     "predicted": "petitioner",
     "actual": "petitioner",
     "correct": true
    },
    {
     "name": "Jackson",
     "predicted": "respondent",
     "actual": "petitioner",
     "correct": false
    }
   ],
   "voteSource": "justice-votes",
   "flags": [
    "Per-Justice votes give 7 for the predicted winner; the headline split is 6-2."
   ],
   "dataNotes": [],
   "methods": {
    "brief_based": {
     "Roberts": null,
     "Thomas": null,
     "Sotomayor": null,
     "Kagan": null,
     "Gorsuch": null,
     "Kavanaugh": "petitioner",
     "Barrett": "petitioner",
     "Jackson": null
    },
    "sentiment": {
     "Roberts": "respondent",
     "Thomas": "petitioner",
     "Sotomayor": "respondent",
     "Kagan": "respondent",
     "Gorsuch": "respondent",
     "Kavanaugh": "petitioner",
     "Barrett": "respondent",
     "Jackson": "petitioner"
    },
    "elp": {
     "Roberts": "respondent",
     "Thomas": "respondent",
     "Sotomayor": "respondent",
     "Kagan": "respondent",
     "Gorsuch": "respondent",
     "Kavanaugh": "respondent",
     "Barrett": "petitioner",
     "Jackson": null
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "enbridge-v-nessel",
   "name": "Enbridge Energy v. Nessel",
   "decisionDate": "2026-04-22",
   "frozenSha": "0ddbdb44cecf",
   "frozenAt": "2026-03-18T15:06:36-04:00",
   "firstCommitted": "2026-03-16T07:56:02-04:00",
   "postDecisionEdits": 0,
   "predWinner": "respondent",
   "predWinnerName": "Nessel",
   "actualWinner": "respondent",
   "actualWinnerName": "Nessel",
   "probability": 0.55,
   "pPetitioner": 0.45,
   "pPetitionerCalibrated": 0.5898,
   "calibratedSource": "applied after the fact",
   "winCorrect": true,
   "predSplit": "5-4",
   "actualSplit": "9-0",
   "splitCorrect": false,
   "unanimous": true,
   "predUnanimous": false,
   "issueArea": "Judicial power",
   "justices": [
    {
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     "name": "Barrett",
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   "slug": "louisiana-v-callais",
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}