{
 "generated": "2026-10-03",
 "method": "- Every forecast is turned into p_raw = P(petitioner wins), from the published headline\n  probability as scored on /accuracy.\n- Candidate recalibrations, each with one fitted parameter unless noted:\n    linear  p = b + k (p_raw - b)                              (probability scale)\n    logit   logit p = logit b + k (logit p_raw - logit b)      (log-odds scale)\n    platt1  logit p = c logit p_raw                            (temperature; shrinks to 0.5)\n    platt2  logit p = a + c logit p_raw                        (2 params; free intercept)\n  b is the SCDB petitioner-win rate for orally argued decisions OT2010-OT2024, the same\n  number score_forecasts.py uses. Parameters are fitted by maximum likelihood (log loss);\n  the 1-parameter fits use a fine grid over [0, 1.5], platt2 uses Newton's method.\n- Honest evaluation is leave-one-out: each case is recalibrated with parameters fitted on\n  the other 31 cases only, then scored. Bootstrap CIs (10k resamples of cases) are given for\n  the Brier gain against the constant base-rate forecast and against the raw forecast.\n  They resample the LOO predictions and do not re-run the fit inside each resample, so they\n  understate the uncertainty somewhat. A separate bootstrap that does refit gives the CI\n  of each parameter.\n- Conditional base rates: b may depend on (i) whether the federal government is petitioner,\n  respondent or neither, or (ii) the SCDB issue area (shrunk toward the overall rate with\n  20 pseudo-cases). Both are estimated from SCDB only (no OT2025 outcomes), so the only\n  parameter fitted on our cases is still k; but choosing among b variants on 32 cases is\n  itself a form of fitting, so a small LOO gain is not evidence.\n- RETROACTIVE-BACKTEST-OT2025.md records only blind winner calls, no probabilities, so it\n  cannot be used to fit k; it is not used.",
 "sample": {
  "cases": 32,
  "note": "Forecast cases were chosen as high-profile cases during OT2025 — 37 of the term's 58 argued cases — not a random sample, so these rates may not generalize to the full docket."
 },
 "reproduced": {
  "cases": 32,
  "brier": 0.2167,
  "logLoss": 0.6302,
  "winnerCorrect": 22,
  "alwaysPetitioner": 23,
  "baseRate": 0.6768,
  "baseRateBrier": 0.2039,
  "published": {
   "brier": 0.2167,
   "logLoss": 0.6302,
   "baseRateBrier": 0.2039
  },
  "calibration": [
   {
    "band": "50–60%",
    "cases": 3,
    "meanConfidence": 0.56,
    "hitRate": 1.0,
    "correct": 3
   },
   {
    "band": "60–70%",
    "cases": 12,
    "meanConfidence": 0.632,
    "hitRate": 0.583,
    "correct": 7
   },
   {
    "band": "70–80%",
    "cases": 10,
    "meanConfidence": 0.731,
    "hitRate": 0.6,
    "correct": 6
   },
   {
    "band": "80–90%",
    "cases": 4,
    "meanConfidence": 0.84,
    "hitRate": 1.0,
    "correct": 4
   },
   {
    "band": "90–100%",
    "cases": 3,
    "meanConfidence": 0.91,
    "hitRate": 0.667,
    "correct": 2
   }
  ]
 },
 "methods": {
  "raw": {
   "description": "As published (no recalibration).",
   "fullSampleParam": null,
   "fullSampleParamCi95": null,
   "looParamRange": null,
   "inSample": {
    "brier": 0.2167,
    "logLoss": 0.6302
   },
   "loo": {
    "brier": 0.2167,
    "logLoss": 0.6302,
    "winnerCorrect": 22,
    "callsFlipped": 0,
    "meanConfidence": 0.708,
    "brierGainVsBase": -0.0128,
    "brierGainVsBaseCi95": [
     -0.0853,
     0.0588
    ],
    "brierGainVsRaw": 0.0,
    "brierGainVsRawCi95": [
     0.0,
     0.0
    ],
    "calibration": [
     {
      "band": "50–60%",
      "cases": 3,
      "meanConfidence": 0.56,
      "hitRate": 1.0,
      "correct": 3
     },
     {
      "band": "60–70%",
      "cases": 12,
      "meanConfidence": 0.632,
      "hitRate": 0.583,
      "correct": 7
     },
     {
      "band": "70–80%",
      "cases": 10,
      "meanConfidence": 0.731,
      "hitRate": 0.6,
      "correct": 6
     },
     {
      "band": "80–90%",
      "cases": 4,
      "meanConfidence": 0.84,
      "hitRate": 1.0,
      "correct": 4
     },
     {
      "band": "90–100%",
      "cases": 3,
      "meanConfidence": 0.91,
      "hitRate": 0.667,
      "correct": 2
     }
    ]
   }
  },
  "base": {
   "description": "Constant historical petitioner-win rate b for every case.",
   "fullSampleParam": null,
   "fullSampleParamCi95": null,
   "looParamRange": null,
   "inSample": {
    "brier": 0.2039,
    "logLoss": 0.5983
   },
   "loo": {
    "brier": 0.2039,
    "logLoss": 0.5983,
    "winnerCorrect": 23,
    "callsFlipped": 9,
    "meanConfidence": 0.677,
    "brierGainVsBase": 0.0,
    "brierGainVsBaseCi95": [
     0.0,
     0.0
    ],
    "brierGainVsRaw": 0.0128,
    "brierGainVsRawCi95": [
     -0.0588,
     0.0853
    ],
    "calibration": [
     {
      "band": "60–70%",
      "cases": 32,
      "meanConfidence": 0.677,
      "hitRate": 0.719,
      "correct": 23
     }
    ]
   }
  },
  "linear": {
   "description": "p = b + k·(p_raw − b), probability scale.",
   "fullSampleParam": 0.37,
   "fullSampleParamCi95": [
    0.0,
    1.156
   ],
   "looParamRange": [
    0.15,
    0.576
   ],
   "inSample": {
    "brier": 0.1976,
    "logLoss": 0.5844
   },
   "loo": {
    "brier": 0.215,
    "logLoss": 0.6226,
    "winnerCorrect": 21,
    "callsFlipped": 7,
    "meanConfidence": 0.656,
    "brierGainVsBase": -0.0111,
    "brierGainVsBaseCi95": [
     -0.0397,
     0.0147
    ],
    "brierGainVsRaw": 0.0017,
    "brierGainVsRawCi95": [
     -0.0448,
     0.0465
    ],
    "calibration": [
     {
      "band": "50–60%",
      "cases": 8,
      "meanConfidence": 0.554,
      "hitRate": 0.375,
      "correct": 3
     },
     {
      "band": "60–70%",
      "cases": 16,
      "meanConfidence": 0.665,
      "hitRate": 0.688,
      "correct": 11
     },
     {
      "band": "70–80%",
      "cases": 7,
      "meanConfidence": 0.729,
      "hitRate": 1.0,
      "correct": 7
     },
     {
      "band": "80–90%",
      "cases": 1,
      "meanConfidence": 0.817,
      "hitRate": 0.0,
      "correct": 0
     }
    ]
   },
   "brierOptimalK": 0.364
  },
  "logit": {
   "description": "logit p = logit b + k·(logit p_raw − logit b), log-odds scale.",
   "fullSampleParam": 0.352,
   "fullSampleParamCi95": [
    0.0,
    1.162
   ],
   "looParamRange": [
    0.135,
    0.539
   ],
   "inSample": {
    "brier": 0.1967,
    "logLoss": 0.583
   },
   "loo": {
    "brier": 0.213,
    "logLoss": 0.6198,
    "winnerCorrect": 21,
    "callsFlipped": 7,
    "meanConfidence": 0.659,
    "brierGainVsBase": -0.0091,
    "brierGainVsBaseCi95": [
     -0.0383,
     0.0168
    ],
    "brierGainVsRaw": 0.0037,
    "brierGainVsRawCi95": [
     -0.043,
     0.0488
    ],
    "calibration": [
     {
      "band": "50–60%",
      "cases": 8,
      "meanConfidence": 0.555,
      "hitRate": 0.375,
      "correct": 3
     },
     {
      "band": "60–70%",
      "cases": 16,
      "meanConfidence": 0.666,
      "hitRate": 0.688,
      "correct": 11
     },
     {
      "band": "70–80%",
      "cases": 7,
      "meanConfidence": 0.736,
      "hitRate": 1.0,
      "correct": 7
     },
     {
      "band": "80–90%",
      "cases": 1,
      "meanConfidence": 0.84,
      "hitRate": 0.0,
      "correct": 0
     }
    ]
   }
  },
  "platt1": {
   "description": "logit p = c·logit p_raw (1-parameter Platt / temperature; shrinks toward 0.5, not b).",
   "fullSampleParam": 0.723,
   "fullSampleParamCi95": [
    0.039,
    1.5
   ],
   "looParamRange": [
    0.667,
    1.091
   ],
   "inSample": {
    "brier": 0.2151,
    "logLoss": 0.6221
   },
   "loo": {
    "brier": 0.2273,
    "logLoss": 0.6653,
    "winnerCorrect": 22,
    "callsFlipped": 0,
    "meanConfidence": 0.66,
    "brierGainVsBase": -0.0234,
    "brierGainVsBaseCi95": [
     -0.0896,
     0.0428
    ],
    "brierGainVsRaw": -0.0106,
    "brierGainVsRawCi95": [
     -0.0219,
     0.0017
    ],
    "calibration": [
     {
      "band": "50–60%",
      "cases": 8,
      "meanConfidence": 0.561,
      "hitRate": 0.75,
      "correct": 6
     },
     {
      "band": "60–70%",
      "cases": 15,
      "meanConfidence": 0.643,
      "hitRate": 0.533,
      "correct": 8
     },
     {
      "band": "70–80%",
      "cases": 5,
      "meanConfidence": 0.723,
      "hitRate": 1.0,
      "correct": 5
     },
     {
      "band": "80–90%",
      "cases": 3,
      "meanConfidence": 0.813,
      "hitRate": 1.0,
      "correct": 3
     },
     {
      "band": "90–100%",
      "cases": 1,
      "meanConfidence": 0.935,
      "hitRate": 0.0,
      "correct": 0
     }
    ]
   }
  },
  "platt2": {
   "description": "logit p = a + c·logit p_raw (2-parameter Platt; intercept fitted on our 32 cases).",
   "fullSampleParam": [
    0.7438,
    0.46
   ],
   "fullSampleParamCi95": [
    -0.573,
    1.663
   ],
   "looParamRange": [
    0.214,
    0.835
   ],
   "inSample": {
    "brier": 0.1916,
    "logLoss": 0.5724
   },
   "loo": {
    "brier": 0.2201,
    "logLoss": 0.6563,
    "winnerCorrect": 23,
    "callsFlipped": 9,
    "meanConfidence": 0.722,
    "brierGainVsBase": -0.0162,
    "brierGainVsBaseCi95": [
     -0.0574,
     0.0169
    ],
    "brierGainVsRaw": -0.0034,
    "brierGainVsRawCi95": [
     -0.0625,
     0.0526
    ],
    "calibration": [
     {
      "band": "50–60%",
      "cases": 4,
      "meanConfidence": 0.555,
      "hitRate": 1.0,
      "correct": 4
     },
     {
      "band": "60–70%",
      "cases": 7,
      "meanConfidence": 0.66,
      "hitRate": 0.429,
      "correct": 3
     },
     {
      "band": "70–80%",
      "cases": 17,
      "meanConfidence": 0.756,
      "hitRate": 0.765,
      "correct": 13
     },
     {
      "band": "80–90%",
      "cases": 3,
      "meanConfidence": 0.829,
      "hitRate": 1.0,
      "correct": 3
     },
     {
      "band": "90–100%",
      "cases": 1,
      "meanConfidence": 0.945,
      "hitRate": 0.0,
      "correct": 0
     }
    ]
   }
  }
 },
 "conditionalBase": {
  "scdb": {
   "overall": 0.6768,
   "cases": 922,
   "byFederalRole": {
    "respondent": {
     "cases": 229,
     "won": 147,
     "rate": 0.6419,
     "shrunk": 0.6419
    },
    "neither": {
     "cases": 573,
     "won": 396,
     "rate": 0.6911,
     "shrunk": 0.6911
    },
    "petitioner": {
     "cases": 120,
     "won": 81,
     "rate": 0.675,
     "shrunk": 0.675
    }
   },
   "byIssueArea": {
    "Criminal procedure": {
     "cases": 208,
     "won": 136,
     "rate": 0.6538,
     "shrunk": 0.6559
    },
    "Civil rights": {
     "cases": 154,
     "won": 109,
     "rate": 0.7078,
     "shrunk": 0.7042
    },
    "Federal taxation": {
     "cases": 17,
     "won": 10,
     "rate": 0.5882,
     "shrunk": 0.6361
    },
    "Economic activity": {
     "cases": 226,
     "won": 149,
     "rate": 0.6593,
     "shrunk": 0.6607
    },
    "Privacy": {
     "cases": 19,
     "won": 17,
     "rate": 0.8947,
     "shrunk": 0.783
    },
    "Federalism": {
     "cases": 39,
     "won": 23,
     "rate": 0.5897,
     "shrunk": 0.6193
    },
    "First Amendment": {
     "cases": 55,
     "won": 38,
     "rate": 0.6909,
     "shrunk": 0.6871
    },
    "Unions": {
     "cases": 27,
     "won": 20,
     "rate": 0.7407,
     "shrunk": 0.7135
    },
    "Judicial power": {
     "cases": 106,
     "won": 74,
     "rate": 0.6981,
     "shrunk": 0.6947
    },
    "Interstate relations": {
     "cases": 9,
     "won": 4,
     "rate": 0.4444,
     "shrunk": 0.6047
    },
    "Attorneys": {
     "cases": 11,
     "won": 7,
     "rate": 0.6364,
     "shrunk": 0.6624
    },
    "Private action": {
     "cases": 5,
     "won": 3,
     "rate": 0.6,
     "shrunk": 0.6614
    },
    "Due process": {
     "cases": 35,
     "won": 27,
     "rate": 0.7714,
     "shrunk": 0.737
    },
    "Miscellaneous": {
     "cases": 11,
     "won": 7,
     "rate": 0.6364,
     "shrunk": 0.6624
    }
   }
  },
  "ot2025ByFederalRole": {
   "petitioner": {
    "cases": 8,
    "petitionerWon": 5
   },
   "respondent": {
    "cases": 4,
    "petitionerWon": 4
   },
   "neither": {
    "cases": 20,
    "petitionerWon": 14
   }
  },
  "variants": {
   "overall": {
    "description": "Overall rate 0.677.",
    "constant": {
     "brier": 0.2039,
     "logLoss": 0.5983,
     "brierGainVsOverallBase": 0.0
    },
    "logit": {
     "fullSampleK": 0.352,
     "looBrier": 0.213,
     "looLogLoss": 0.6198,
     "looWinnerCorrect": 21,
     "brierGainVsOverallBaseCi95": [
      -0.0383,
      0.0168
     ]
    },
    "linear": {
     "fullSampleK": 0.37,
     "looBrier": 0.215,
     "looLogLoss": 0.6226,
     "looWinnerCorrect": 21,
     "brierGainVsOverallBaseCi95": [
      -0.0397,
      0.0147
     ]
    }
   },
   "federalRole": {
    "description": "Rate by whether the federal government is petitioner / respondent / neither.",
    "constant": {
     "brier": 0.2065,
     "logLoss": 0.6041,
     "brierGainVsOverallBase": -0.0026
    },
    "logit": {
     "fullSampleK": 0.38,
     "looBrier": 0.2136,
     "looLogLoss": 0.6215,
     "looWinnerCorrect": 21,
     "brierGainVsOverallBaseCi95": [
      -0.0404,
      0.0184
     ]
    },
    "linear": {
     "fullSampleK": 0.4,
     "looBrier": 0.2159,
     "looLogLoss": 0.6251,
     "looWinnerCorrect": 21,
     "brierGainVsOverallBaseCi95": [
      -0.0428,
      0.0162
     ]
    }
   },
   "issueArea": {
    "description": "Rate by SCDB issue area, shrunk toward 0.677 with 20 pseudo-cases.",
    "constant": {
     "brier": 0.2095,
     "logLoss": 0.6113,
     "brierGainVsOverallBase": -0.0056
    },
    "logit": {
     "fullSampleK": 0.406,
     "looBrier": 0.2171,
     "looLogLoss": 0.629,
     "looWinnerCorrect": 21,
     "brierGainVsOverallBaseCi95": [
      -0.0469,
      0.017
     ]
    },
    "linear": {
     "fullSampleK": 0.428,
     "looBrier": 0.2181,
     "looLogLoss": 0.6298,
     "looWinnerCorrect": 20,
     "brierGainVsOverallBaseCi95": [
      -0.0477,
      0.0162
     ]
    }
   }
  },
  "verdict": "Not adopted. With 32 cases neither conditional base rate earns its keep; see variants. Re-test once ≥ 60 scored cases exist."
 },
 "recommended": {
  "name": "logit-anchor",
  "formula": "p_cal = expit( logit(b) + k · (logit(p_raw) − logit(b)) ), clipped to [0.01, 0.99]",
  "b": 0.6768,
  "k": 0.4,
  "bSource": "922 orally argued decisions, OT2010–OT2024 (Supreme Court Database): share won by the petitioner",
  "why": "k = 0.4 on the log-odds scale: the maximum-likelihood k on all 32 cases is ~0.35 (Brier-optimal linear k ~0.36) and the in-sample Brier is flat for k in 0.3-0.5, so 0.4 rounds the fit up slightly toward trusting the (since-revised) pipeline. Its bootstrap CI runs from 0 to above 1, so k is weakly identified. Anchoring at 0.5 (platt1) instead of b made things worse, so the anchor must be b. The log-odds form never leaves (0, 1) and is the same family Platt scaling uses.",
  "appliedToOT2025InSample": {
   "brier": 0.1968,
   "logLoss": 0.5832,
   "winnerCorrect": 24,
   "callsFlipped": 8,
   "meanConfidence": 0.659,
   "brierGainVsBase": 0.0071,
   "brierGainVsBaseCi95": [
    -0.0241,
    0.0404
   ],
   "brierGainVsRaw": 0.0199,
   "brierGainVsRawCi95": [
    -0.0205,
    0.0628
   ],
   "calibration": [
    {
     "band": "50–60%",
     "cases": 8,
     "meanConfidence": 0.548,
     "hitRate": 0.625,
     "correct": 5
    },
    {
     "band": "60–70%",
     "cases": 15,
     "meanConfidence": 0.662,
     "hitRate": 0.733,
     "correct": 11
    },
    {
     "band": "70–80%",
     "cases": 8,
     "meanConfidence": 0.744,
     "hitRate": 1.0,
     "correct": 8
    },
    {
     "band": "80–90%",
     "cases": 1,
     "meanConfidence": 0.805,
     "hitRate": 0.0,
     "correct": 0
    }
   ]
  },
  "kSensitivityInSample": {
   "0.00": {
    "brier": 0.2039,
    "logLoss": 0.5983
   },
   "0.25": {
    "brier": 0.1974,
    "logLoss": 0.5842
   },
   "0.30": {
    "brier": 0.1969,
    "logLoss": 0.5833
   },
   "0.35": {
    "brier": 0.1967,
    "logLoss": 0.583
   },
   "0.40": {
    "brier": 0.1968,
    "logLoss": 0.5832
   },
   "0.45": {
    "brier": 0.1972,
    "logLoss": 0.5841
   },
   "0.50": {
    "brier": 0.1979,
    "logLoss": 0.5856
   },
   "0.60": {
    "brier": 0.2,
    "logLoss": 0.5903
   },
   "0.75": {
    "brier": 0.2051,
    "logLoss": 0.6015
   },
   "1.00": {
    "brier": 0.2167,
    "logLoss": 0.6302
   }
  },
  "examples": [
   {
    "raw": 0.05,
    "calibrated": 0.324
   },
   {
    "raw": 0.1,
    "calibrated": 0.393
   },
   {
    "raw": 0.2,
    "calibrated": 0.472
   },
   {
    "raw": 0.3,
    "calibrated": 0.526
   },
   {
    "raw": 0.4,
    "calibrated": 0.57
   },
   {
    "raw": 0.5,
    "calibrated": 0.609
   },
   {
    "raw": 0.6,
    "calibrated": 0.647
   },
   {
    "raw": 0.65,
    "calibrated": 0.666
   },
   {
    "raw": 0.7,
    "calibrated": 0.686
   },
   {
    "raw": 0.75,
    "calibrated": 0.707
   },
   {
    "raw": 0.8,
    "calibrated": 0.731
   },
   {
    "raw": 0.85,
    "calibrated": 0.757
   },
   {
    "raw": 0.9,
    "calibrated": 0.79
   },
   {
    "raw": 0.95,
    "calibrated": 0.835
   }
  ],
  "pickRule": "The published winner is the side with p_cal ≥ 0.5. Because the anchor b > 0.5 and 0 < k ≤ 1, a raw respondent call stands only if p_raw is below a threshold; between it and 0.5 the call flips to petitioner (for k = 0.4: p_raw in (0.248, 0.5)); a petitioner call never flips.",
  "refit": [
   "Pool every pre-decision forecast scored by score_forecasts.py (OT2025 + decided OT2026 cases).",
   "Re-run this script after each batch of decisions; it refits k by maximum likelihood with leave-one-out evaluation.",
   "Change the published k only when (a) at least 15 new decided cases have accrued since the last change, and (b) the new full-sample k differs from the current k by more than 0.1 and the current k lies outside the new bootstrap 95% CI. Round to the nearest 0.05. Never set k > 1 (that would amplify, not anchor).",
   "Recompute b from SCDB each summer when a new release adds the last term; keep the OT2010+ window.",
   "Only switch to a conditional base rate (federal role or issue area) if it improves LOO Brier by at least 0.01 with a bootstrap CI excluding 0 on ≥ 60 cases."
  ]
 },
 "caveats": [
  "n = 32, not a random sample of the docket (high-profile cases); every CI is wide.",
  "LOO bootstrap CIs resample fixed LOO predictions and omit refit noise, so they are optimistic.",
  "Fitting k on the same term it will be judged against is in-sample; OT2026 is the real test.",
  "Raw probabilities are the published headline numbers, rounded to 0.01 by the synthesizer.",
  "The retroactive back-test (RETROACTIVE-BACKTEST-OT2025.md) has winner calls only, no probabilities; unused."
 ],
 "cases": [
  {
   "slug": "learning-resources-v-trump",
   "pRaw": 0.65,
   "actual": "petitioner",
   "federalRole": "respondent",
   "pRule": 0.6662,
   "loo": {
    "linear": 0.6667,
    "logit": 0.6673,
    "platt1": 0.6052,
    "platt2": 0.7274
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "cox-v-sony",
   "pRaw": 0.58,
   "actual": "petitioner",
   "federalRole": "neither",
   "pRule": 0.6393,
   "loo": {
    "linear": 0.6386,
    "logit": 0.6421,
    "platt1": 0.5565,
    "platt2": 0.6993
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "chiles-v-salazar",
   "pRaw": 0.72,
   "actual": "petitioner",
   "federalRole": "neither",
   "pRule": 0.6945,
   "loo": {
    "linear": 0.6923,
    "logit": 0.692,
    "platt1": 0.655,
    "platt2": 0.7549
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "chevron-v-plaquemines",
   "pRaw": 0.4,
   "actual": "petitioner",
   "federalRole": "neither",
   "pRule": 0.5699,
   "loo": {
    "linear": 0.5522,
    "logit": 0.5654,
    "platt1": 0.4241,
    "platt2": 0.6133
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "enbridge-v-nessel",
   "pRaw": 0.45,
   "actual": "respondent",
   "federalRole": "neither",
   "pRule": 0.5898,
   "loo": {
    "linear": 0.6142,
    "logit": 0.617,
    "platt1": 0.4644,
    "platt2": 0.6893
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "first-choice-v-platkin",
   "pRaw": 0.78,
   "actual": "petitioner",
   "federalRole": "neither",
   "pRule": 0.7211,
   "loo": {
    "linear": 0.7126,
    "logit": 0.7139,
    "platt1": 0.7007,
    "platt2": 0.7792
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "louisiana-v-callais",
   "pRaw": 0.35,
   "actual": "respondent",
   "federalRole": "neither",
   "pRule": 0.5488,
   "loo": {
    "linear": 0.5984,
    "logit": 0.5989,
    "platt1": 0.3948,
    "platt2": 0.6603
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "montgomery-v-caribe-transport",
   "pRaw": 0.6,
   "actual": "petitioner",
   "federalRole": "neither",
   "pRule": 0.6469,
   "loo": {
    "linear": 0.6469,
    "logit": 0.6495,
    "platt1": 0.5704,
    "platt2": 0.7075
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "havana-docks-v-royal-caribbean",
   "pRaw": 0.35,
   "actual": "petitioner",
   "federalRole": "neither",
   "pRule": 0.5488,
   "loo": {
    "linear": 0.5232,
    "logit": 0.5377,
    "platt1": 0.3822,
    "platt2": 0.582
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "flowers-foods-v-brock",
   "pRaw": 0.6,
   "actual": "respondent",
   "federalRole": "neither",
   "pRule": 0.6469,
   "loo": {
    "linear": 0.6511,
    "logit": 0.6527,
    "platt1": 0.5759,
    "platt2": 0.7416
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "fcc-v-att",
   "pRaw": 0.28,
   "actual": "petitioner",
   "federalRole": "petitioner",
   "pRule": 0.5164,
   "loo": {
    "linear": 0.4776,
    "logit": 0.4899,
    "platt1": 0.3165,
    "platt2": 0.5273
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "keathley-v-buddy-ayers",
   "pRaw": 0.73,
   "actual": "petitioner",
   "federalRole": "neither",
   "pRule": 0.6987,
   "loo": {
    "linear": 0.6958,
    "logit": 0.6956,
    "platt1": 0.6623,
    "platt2": 0.7589
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "tm-v-univ-maryland-medical",
   "pRaw": 0.92,
   "actual": "respondent",
   "federalRole": "neither",
   "pRule": 0.8054,
   "loo": {
    "linear": 0.8169,
    "logit": 0.8399,
    "platt1": 0.9349,
    "platt2": 0.9453
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "hunter-v-united-states",
   "pRaw": 0.6,
   "actual": "petitioner",
   "federalRole": "respondent",
   "pRule": 0.6469,
   "loo": {
    "linear": 0.6469,
    "logit": 0.6495,
    "platt1": 0.5704,
    "platt2": 0.7075
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "us-v-hemani",
   "pRaw": 0.65,
   "actual": "respondent",
   "federalRole": "petitioner",
   "pRule": 0.6662,
   "loo": {
    "linear": 0.6672,
    "logit": 0.6677,
    "platt1": 0.6178,
    "platt2": 0.7626
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "cisco-v-doe",
   "pRaw": 0.8,
   "actual": "petitioner",
   "federalRole": "neither",
   "pRule": 0.7307,
   "loo": {
    "linear": 0.7191,
    "logit": 0.7215,
    "platt1": 0.7168,
    "platt2": 0.7877
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "blanche-v-lau",
   "pRaw": 0.69,
   "actual": "petitioner",
   "federalRole": "petitioner",
   "pRule": 0.6821,
   "loo": {
    "linear": 0.6816,
    "logit": 0.6814,
    "platt1": 0.6333,
    "platt2": 0.7431
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "pung-v-isabella-county",
   "pRaw": 0.7,
   "actual": "respondent",
   "federalRole": "neither",
   "pRule": 0.6862,
   "loo": {
    "linear": 0.6857,
    "logit": 0.6853,
    "platt1": 0.6636,
    "platt2": 0.7863
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "exxon-v-cimex",
   "pRaw": 0.55,
   "actual": "petitioner",
   "federalRole": "neither",
   "pRule": 0.628,
   "loo": {
    "linear": 0.6257,
    "logit": 0.6309,
    "platt1": 0.5356,
    "platt2": 0.6867
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "landor-v-louisiana",
   "pRaw": 0.72,
   "actual": "respondent",
   "federalRole": "neither",
   "pRule": 0.6945,
   "loo": {
    "linear": 0.6938,
    "logit": 0.6932,
    "platt1": 0.6835,
    "platt2": 0.7966
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "mullin-v-doe",
   "pRaw": 0.74,
   "actual": "petitioner",
   "federalRole": "petitioner",
   "pRule": 0.703,
   "loo": {
    "linear": 0.6993,
    "logit": 0.6992,
    "platt1": 0.6698,
    "platt2": 0.7629
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "monsanto-v-durnell",
   "pRaw": 0.28,
   "actual": "petitioner",
   "federalRole": "neither",
   "pRule": 0.5164,
   "loo": {
    "linear": 0.4776,
    "logit": 0.4899,
    "platt1": 0.3165,
    "platt2": 0.5273
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "noem-v-al-otro-lado",
   "pRaw": 0.6,
   "actual": "petitioner",
   "federalRole": "petitioner",
   "pRule": 0.6469,
   "loo": {
    "linear": 0.6469,
    "logit": 0.6495,
    "platt1": 0.5704,
    "platt2": 0.7075
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "wolford-v-lopez",
   "pRaw": 0.78,
   "actual": "petitioner",
   "federalRole": "neither",
   "pRule": 0.7211,
   "loo": {
    "linear": 0.7126,
    "logit": 0.7139,
    "platt1": 0.7007,
    "platt2": 0.7792
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "chatrie-v-united-states",
   "pRaw": 0.85,
   "actual": "petitioner",
   "federalRole": "respondent",
   "pRule": 0.7572,
   "loo": {
    "linear": 0.7343,
    "logit": 0.742,
    "platt1": 0.7608,
    "platt2": 0.8106
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "watson-v-rnc",
   "pRaw": 0.35,
   "actual": "petitioner",
   "federalRole": "neither",
   "pRule": 0.5488,
   "loo": {
    "linear": 0.5232,
    "logit": 0.5377,
    "platt1": 0.3822,
    "platt2": 0.582
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "trump-v-cook",
   "pRaw": 0.35,
   "actual": "respondent",
   "federalRole": "petitioner",
   "pRule": 0.5488,
   "loo": {
    "linear": 0.5984,
    "logit": 0.5989,
    "platt1": 0.3948,
    "platt2": 0.6603
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "trump-v-slaughter",
   "pRaw": 0.7,
   "actual": "petitioner",
   "federalRole": "petitioner",
   "pRule": 0.6862,
   "loo": {
    "linear": 0.6853,
    "logit": 0.685,
    "platt1": 0.6406,
    "platt2": 0.747
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "trump-v-barbara",
   "pRaw": 0.1,
   "actual": "respondent",
   "federalRole": "petitioner",
   "pRule": 0.3928,
   "loo": {
    "linear": 0.5903,
    "logit": 0.5848,
    "platt1": 0.1876,
    "platt2": 0.6139
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "little-v-hecox",
   "pRaw": 0.91,
   "actual": "petitioner",
   "federalRole": "neither",
   "pRule": 0.7972,
   "loo": {
    "linear": 0.7514,
    "logit": 0.7722,
    "platt1": 0.8243,
    "platt2": 0.844
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "west-virginia-v-bpj",
   "pRaw": 0.89,
   "actual": "petitioner",
   "federalRole": "neither",
   "pRule": 0.7824,
   "loo": {
    "linear": 0.7459,
    "logit": 0.7612,
    "platt1": 0.8013,
    "platt2": 0.8317
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "nrsc-v-fec",
   "pRaw": 0.82,
   "actual": "petitioner",
   "federalRole": "respondent",
   "pRule": 0.7408,
   "loo": {
    "linear": 0.7253,
    "logit": 0.7294,
    "platt1": 0.7336,
    "platt2": 0.7965
   }
  }
 ]
}