{ "generated": "2026-10-06", "title": "Question counts by phase of argument", "summary": "Does the Epstein-Landes-Posner rule (the side asked more loses; a Justice votes against the side they question more) work better on the open free-for-all period alone, now that each lawyer's time ends with a seniority-order round in which the Chief Justice calls on every Justice?", "findings": [ "The seniority round carries no information about the outcome (lift about 0). Because every lawyer gets one, it also adds questions in proportion to the number of lawyers on a side. Together these explain why the whole-argument rule fell to coin-flip level from OT2020.", "Counting the open period only restores the case-level rule to its OT2010-2019 level (turns: 58.6% of OT2021-2025 cases vs 57.1% before 2020; whole argument 49.7%).", "A second, older confound: a side with more lawyers (usually the Solicitor General as amicus) draws more questions and also usually wins. Dividing each side's open-period counts by its number of lawyers lifts the case-level rule to 62.7% and the Justice-level rule to 64.4% in OT2021-2025.", "Even so, the rule never beats 'the petitioner always wins' at the case level (68.5%), and is only about 2-4 points above it at the Justice level. Question counts are evidence to weigh, not a forecast on their own." ], "phases": { "whole": "Whole argument (current site rule)", "open": "Open period only", "seriatim": "Seniority round only", "openPerLawyer": "Open period, per lawyer", "wholePerLawyer": "Whole argument, per lawyer" }, "metrics": { "cc": "Justice turns", "qc": "question turns ('?' in the turn)", "wc": "words" }, "method": "Official transcripts OT2010-OT2025, parsed per utterance. Within each lawyer's time, the seniority round is found from the Chief Justice's call lines ('Justice Thomas?', 'Justice Alito?' ...): it starts at the first call naming the most senior Justice called from there on, after which each call is followed by questions from one Justice. The presiding Justice's procedural lines (calls, 'Anything further?', 'Rebuttal?') are left out of the phase counts. 'Per lawyer' divides each side's counts by the number of lawyers who argued for it. Outcomes: Supreme Court Database 2025_01 through OT2024; OT2025 from our decision records. Ties excluded. Lift = P(petitioner wins | rule picks petitioner) - P(petitioner wins | rule picks respondent). 95% intervals by bootstrap over cases.", "detector": { "2010": { "transcripts": 78, "withOpenAndSeriatim": 0, "seriatimOnly": 0, "noSeriatim": 78, "segments": 294, "segmentsOpenAndSeriatim": 0, "segmentsSeriatimOnly": 0, "segmentsOpenOnly": 294, "strayCalls": 2, "seriatimShareOfJusticeTurns": 0.0 }, "2011": { "transcripts": 72, "withOpenAndSeriatim": 0, "seriatimOnly": 0, "noSeriatim": 72, "segments": 267, "segmentsOpenAndSeriatim": 0, "segmentsSeriatimOnly": 0, "segmentsOpenOnly": 267, "strayCalls": 10, "seriatimShareOfJusticeTurns": 0.0 }, "2012": { "transcripts": 75, "withOpenAndSeriatim": 0, "seriatimOnly": 0, "noSeriatim": 75, "segments": 277, "segmentsOpenAndSeriatim": 0, "segmentsSeriatimOnly": 0, "segmentsOpenOnly": 277, "strayCalls": 9, "seriatimShareOfJusticeTurns": 0.0 }, "2013": { "transcripts": 70, "withOpenAndSeriatim": 0, "seriatimOnly": 0, "noSeriatim": 70, "segments": 271, "segmentsOpenAndSeriatim": 0, "segmentsSeriatimOnly": 0, "segmentsOpenOnly": 271, "strayCalls": 7, "seriatimShareOfJusticeTurns": 0.0 }, "2014": { "transcripts": 69, "withOpenAndSeriatim": 0, "seriatimOnly": 0, "noSeriatim": 69, "segments": 258, "segmentsOpenAndSeriatim": 0, "segmentsSeriatimOnly": 0, "segmentsOpenOnly": 258, "strayCalls": 12, "seriatimShareOfJusticeTurns": 0.0 }, "2015": { "transcripts": 69, "withOpenAndSeriatim": 0, "seriatimOnly": 0, "noSeriatim": 69, "segments": 272, "segmentsOpenAndSeriatim": 0, "segmentsSeriatimOnly": 0, "segmentsOpenOnly": 272, "strayCalls": 10, "seriatimShareOfJusticeTurns": 0.0 }, "2016": { "transcripts": 64, "withOpenAndSeriatim": 0, "seriatimOnly": 0, "noSeriatim": 64, "segments": 235, "segmentsOpenAndSeriatim": 0, "segmentsSeriatimOnly": 0, "segmentsOpenOnly": 235, "strayCalls": 8, "seriatimShareOfJusticeTurns": 0.0 }, "2017": { "transcripts": 63, "withOpenAndSeriatim": 0, "seriatimOnly": 0, "noSeriatim": 63, "segments": 236, "segmentsOpenAndSeriatim": 0, "segmentsSeriatimOnly": 0, "segmentsOpenOnly": 236, "strayCalls": 5, "seriatimShareOfJusticeTurns": 0.0 }, "2018": { "transcripts": 71, "withOpenAndSeriatim": 0, "seriatimOnly": 0, "noSeriatim": 71, "segments": 260, "segmentsOpenAndSeriatim": 0, "segmentsSeriatimOnly": 0, "segmentsOpenOnly": 260, "strayCalls": 10, "seriatimShareOfJusticeTurns": 0.0 }, "2019": { "transcripts": 58, "withOpenAndSeriatim": 0, "seriatimOnly": 10, "noSeriatim": 48, "segments": 226, "segmentsOpenAndSeriatim": 0, "segmentsSeriatimOnly": 26, "segmentsOpenOnly": 200, "strayCalls": 5, "seriatimShareOfJusticeTurns": 0.141 }, "2020": { "transcripts": 58, "withOpenAndSeriatim": 4, "seriatimOnly": 54, "noSeriatim": 0, "segments": 219, "segmentsOpenAndSeriatim": 4, "segmentsSeriatimOnly": 152, "segmentsOpenOnly": 63, "strayCalls": 3, "seriatimShareOfJusticeTurns": 0.989 }, "2021": { "transcripts": 63, "withOpenAndSeriatim": 62, "seriatimOnly": 0, "noSeriatim": 1, "segments": 229, "segmentsOpenAndSeriatim": 148, "segmentsSeriatimOnly": 0, "segmentsOpenOnly": 81, "strayCalls": 24, "seriatimShareOfJusticeTurns": 0.256 }, "2022": { "transcripts": 59, "withOpenAndSeriatim": 59, "seriatimOnly": 0, "noSeriatim": 0, "segments": 208, "segmentsOpenAndSeriatim": 142, "segmentsSeriatimOnly": 0, "segmentsOpenOnly": 66, "strayCalls": 20, "seriatimShareOfJusticeTurns": 0.321 }, "2023": { "transcripts": 61, "withOpenAndSeriatim": 59, "seriatimOnly": 0, "noSeriatim": 2, "segments": 219, "segmentsOpenAndSeriatim": 137, "segmentsSeriatimOnly": 0, "segmentsOpenOnly": 82, "strayCalls": 19, "seriatimShareOfJusticeTurns": 0.332 }, "2024": { "transcripts": 62, "withOpenAndSeriatim": 59, "seriatimOnly": 0, "noSeriatim": 3, "segments": 252, "segmentsOpenAndSeriatim": 136, "segmentsSeriatimOnly": 0, "segmentsOpenOnly": 116, "strayCalls": 23, "seriatimShareOfJusticeTurns": 0.321 }, "2025": { "transcripts": 58, "withOpenAndSeriatim": 56, "seriatimOnly": 0, "noSeriatim": 2, "segments": 219, "segmentsOpenAndSeriatim": 138, "segmentsSeriatimOnly": 0, "segmentsOpenOnly": 81, "strayCalls": 16, "seriatimShareOfJusticeTurns": 0.375 } }, "results": { "OT2010-2019": { "cases": 668, "petitionerWinRate": 0.639, "whole": { "cc": { "case": { "n": 652, "correct": 372, "accuracy": 0.571, "ci95": [ 0.534, 0.607 ], "petitionerBaseline": 0.646, "lift": { "pPetIfPet": 0.724, "pPetIfRes": 0.573, "lift": 0.151, "ci95": [ 0.08, 0.221 ] } }, "justice": { "n": 4773, "correct": 2939, "accuracy": 0.616, "ci95": [ 0.599, 0.631 ], "coverage": 0.826, "petitionerBaseline": 0.616, "caseRuleBaseline": 0.55, "lift": { "pPetIfPet": 0.744, "pPetIfRes": 0.5, "lift": 0.244, "ci95": [ 0.21, 0.276 ] } } }, "qc": { "case": { "n": 641, "correct": 338, "accuracy": 0.527, "ci95": [ 0.487, 0.565 ], "petitionerBaseline": 0.638, "lift": { "pPetIfPet": 0.67, "pPetIfRes": 0.608, "lift": 0.062, "ci95": [ -0.012, 0.137 ] } }, "justice": { "n": 4486, "correct": 2658, "accuracy": 0.593, "ci95": [ 0.576, 0.608 ], 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